Cougars Fall to Notre Dame, but Still Undefeated at Halftime

In a game that was closer on the scoreboard than most of the country expected it to be, the Cougars lost to Notre Dame in South Bend, 17-14.  However, the Cougars got worn down by an elite team in the second half once again. 

The Good:

Riley Nelson was 23-36 for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Jamaal Williams continued to indicate that the future at RB is good for the Cougars, with 68 yards in 14 carries on the ground and 7 receptions for 42 yards.  Cody Hoffman continues to have a year that should get serious NFL consideration with 8 catches for 86 yards.  The defense held a top ten team to 17 points. 

The Bad:

Nelson had 2 interceptions, and really couldn’t get the job done in crunch time.  The leading tackler was safety Daniel Sorenson with 10 total and 4 solo.  This means that ND made it into the secondary too many times.

The Ugly:

Theo Riddick’s 55-yard run during the drive that resulted in an ND field goal.  He should have been down at the line, but nobody got there to make sure his knee touched the ground.  Really, any time Riddick ran the ball, it was ugly for the Cougars.  He gained 149 yards on 15 carries for an average of 9.5 yards per carry. 

The Cougars were outgained by ND on the ground, 270-66.  That disparity is what ultimately cost the Cougars a chance at a season-saving upset on national TV.  The Cougars were pretty much manhandled on both lines: offense and defense.   The O-line seemed to struggle a bit when Brown went down, and Defensive Line  wore down and had a hard time tackling, especially when Riddick had the ball. 

Some Numbers:

We are concerned at the Cougars’ inability to close out games in the second half, and created this handy little chart for you. 

Linescore BYU WSU	1st 7 0	2nd 17 6	3rd 6 0	4th 0 0	Final 30 6
Linescore BYU Weber State	1st 7 0	2nd 14 0	3rd 10 6	4th 14 7	Final 45 13
Linescore    BYU   Utah	1st 0 7	2nd 7 0	3rd 0 17	4th 14 0	Final 21 24
Linescore BYU Boise State	1st 0 0	2nd 0 0	3rd 0 7	4th 6 0	Final 6 7
Linescore BYU Hawaii	1st 7 0	2nd 13 0	3rd 20 0	4th 7 0	Final 47 0
Linescore BYU Utah State	1st 0 3	2nd 6 0	3rd 0 0	4th 0 0	Final 6 3
Linescore BYU Oregon State	1st 7 14	2nd 7 0	3rd 7 7	4th 3 21	Final 24 42
Linescore BYU Notre Dame	1st 0 7	2nd 14 0	3rd 0 3	4th 0 7	Final 14 17
Cumulative BYU Opp	1st 28 31	2nd 72 6	3rd 43 40	4th 44 35	Final 187 112
Wins BYU Opp	1st 21 3	2nd 44 6	3rd 36 6	4th 21 7	Final 122 22
Losses BYU Opp	1st 7 26	2nd 28 0	3rd 7 34	4th 23 28	Final 65 90

 

Some Conclusions:

First of all, the obvious: the Cougars are not holding their own in the second half against top-25 level teams.  In their four wins, they outscored opponents 57-13 in the second half, even with reserves in for much of the fourth quarter in three of those games.  In their four losses, though, they have been outscored 62-30 in the second half, and 34-7 in the third quarter. 

The disparity in the third quarter is forcing the Cougars to play from behind in the fourth quarter.  Unfortunately, the Cougars don’t have the capability to do that at this point in time.  Consequently, they are losing.  

So, why can’t the Cougars get the job done in the second half?  We aren’t coaches, but we can see a lot of what is happening out on the field.  The first thing we see is that the Cougars are being physically worn down.  This could be for one of two reasons.  Either the talent level  and lack of Depth is such that the Cougars are leaving it all on the field in the first half just to stay even, and the inevitable happens in the second half, or the Cougars aren’t in good enough shape. 

Another possibility is that opposing staffs are making better halftime adjustments than the Cougars’ staff is.  Both staffs always make halftime adjustments, and the one that makes the best ones usually dominates the third quarter.  That is what may to be happening with the Cougars, especially in big games.

Either way, this is fixable.  Recruiting is always a challenge.  Because of the high academic and moral standards, the Cougars are never going to play on a level field when it comes to recruiting.  While some schools  have parties and teams of “hostesses” to make recruits feel welcome on visits, BYU tells them they must remain sober and celibate, living according to the school Honor Code. 

However, If the Cougars can increase their success in the LDS segment of the recruiting pool.  Imagine the result of this game if LDS member Manti Te’o had decided to come to Provo instead of going to South Bend.  The Cougars are going to have to “put a wall around the LDS Church,” much like Miami has traditionally done with the best programs in Dade County. 

As for coaching and conditioning, it’s going to be up to the staff.  We won’t pretend to be qualified to tell them how to do their jobs, but they are going to have to take a long, hard look at what has happened this season.  This season had the potential for a BCS bowl berth, but has now turned into one that could end up as a 5 or 6-loss season. 

The next game is on the road against Georgia Tech.  Tech is struggling this year at 3-4, but they still have major college athletes, and a tricky triple-option offense.  Few teams use the triple-option anymore; consequently, it is almost impossible for the scout team to fully prepare the starters in practice.  It is in the Cougars’ favor that Tech’s wins have been over struggling teams, and that Tech has lost to anyone with even mediocre talent.  The loss to Middle Tennessee State is especially encouraging.

At this point, though, there is nothing left to play for but pride.  The bowl berth is etched in stone, thanks to the ESPN contract and the three tomato cans on the schedule after Ga Tech.  It would be nice, though, if the Cougars could beat at least one team that is considered to be relatively good. 

We think the Cougars will come through this time, but barely.

Cougars Give Broncos Early Christmas: Even Santa is Impressed

Imagine that it’s only September 20, but it feels like your year is dangerously close to being over, almost before it started. Inexplicably, when you wake up and go into your living room, there’s a Christmas tree with a pile of gifts under it.  Somehow, instinctively, you know that these aren’t gifts you have to wait until Christmas to open, but gifts that can be opened right now. 

You walk across your blue carpet to the tree, and notice that the labels all say, “To:  BSU Broncos.  From: BYU Cougars.  You begin to unwrap the first gift.  Your curiosity turns to boyish delight when you open the box and it has two gifts, one inside another.  The first is wrapped in black and white stripes, and it says “Illegal block: 15 yards.”  You unwrap the inside gift and it says, “Interception, courtesy of Riley Nelson.”  

You are excited now, because you know that one gift like this from the Cougars usually means more are coming in short order.  Sure enough, the next gift says, “Fumble, courtesy of Riley Nelson.”  Then, the next present says, “Interception, from your old pal Riley Nelson.”  Just as you are about to get bored, or wonder why Riley Nelson is being so nice and everybody else on the Cougars isn’t quite in the spirit, you open another gift: “Fumble, from your new friend, Michael Alisa.”  Then, you see another gift: “Hi, it’s me again, Riley Nelson.  Please accept this interception as a token of my friendship.”

You are starting to feel like something isn’t quite right, like maybe these gifts aren’t really as valuable as you think they are.  Then, you see the most valuable gift of all, hidden directly behind the tree.  It’s in a small jewelry case, as if it contained a fine diamond.  You open the case, and it says, “From one Bronco to another, please accept this failed two-point conversion attempt.”

Your face is now the picture of every child’s dream Christmas.  The new bike, the red wagon: all pale in comparison to the plethora of valuable gifts you received on this, your finest Christmas ever.  Tired from your unexpected glee, you start to doze off.  Your last thought before you go to sleep is, “How did Santa Claus and those nice people from BYU know we needed these gifts so badly?”

That, in a nutshell, is what happened on Thursday night.  The only silver lining here was the defense, which did a great job of holding Boise State to seven points.  Riley Stephenson was also great, punting the ball six times for 282 yards, an average of 47 yards per kick, and a net of 46.3 yards per kick. 

Consequently, we are going to give only two stars for the game.  The first goes to the defense, and the second goes to Stephenson. 

So, what is going on with the Cougars?  Why is an offense with a lot of returning starters coming up so flat in important games?  Coach Mendenhall and OC Brandon Doman certainly have to shoulder some of the blame here.  The last two games, it looked like opponents knew what the Cougars were running before they ran it on far too many occasions. 

Too many times, it has looked like the other team knew exactly where the ball was going and when it was going there.   The Cougars can get away with this against teams with lesser talent, but it simply doesn’t work against teams with equal or better talent, or even against teams at a slight disadvantage. 

Pure and simple, the Cougars have been out-coached the last two games.  Coach Mendenhall said all the right things after the game, and congratulated BSU for playing hard and doing things right, but he has to know that he has just let another great opportunity slip through his fingers.  The Cougars had the personnel and the schedule to make it to a BCS bowl this year.  Now, they have to run the table to have a prayer at it.  That won’t be easy, either, with games against USU, Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech coming up in October.

Notre Dame looked like they would continue to be Team Turmoil before the season started, but have pulled it together nicely, and look like a bona fide top ten team after their performances the last two weeks.  A victory over ND as an exclamation point to a 10-2 season might be enough, but there is no way the Cougars can play like this and beat Notre Dame. 

Oregon State also looks better than they were projected to be this year.  Georgia Tech is always tough, and their triple option offense is extremely difficult to defend when they get it going.

The Cougars are contracted to play in the Poinsettia Bowl against a team from the Mountain West Conference if they don’t make it to a BCS bowl.  The only way this season could possibly end well is if the Cougars either run the table or beat the Broncos, who are in their last season in the MWC, in a rematch at the Poinsettia Bowl. 

Either way, there is a lot of work to do.  Our suggestion is that the coaching staff meets with Riley Nelson and asks him to tell them what he thinks could be done to improve this year’s model of the offense.  Nelson is the guy taking the pounding out there, and he is the guy who is apparently throwing the ball into spaces that should have open receivers, only to find opposing DB’s there instead.

Nelson will never be mistaken for having a rifle arm, but his commitment, savvy, and toughness are self-evident, and he would be a great resource for the coaching staff to pump for information.  If it takes Mendenhall, Doman, and Nelson going over tape of every offensive play over and over, until they find something, than they need to get it done.

If things continue as they are going, the Cougars may have to win their bowl game to finish over .500 for the season.  This is OK for many programs, but would be a huge disappointment considering how many players the Cougars returned this year. 

This year can still turn out to be a very good year for the Cougars, but it won’t happen if the only place the offense appears is on the side of a milk carton.

Let’s Blame Bronco

After 2 disappointing losses by a total difference of a mere 4 points, it should be expected that Cougar Nation is in melt down mode. BYU put forth probably their most pathetic Offensive display since the Crowton era on Friday night. a Late decision to go for 2 was thwarted, and that was the game.

The Sports boards are currently lit up with plenty of Blame for coach Bronco Mendenhall after this game. Blame for choice of quarterbacks. Blame for choice of plays. Blame for choice of coaches. Not all this blame is undeserved. But I would like to focus on what we really should blame Bronco for.

On choice of Quarterbacks, it has always been popular with fans to call for the backup when the starter struggles. I remember sitting in LES and listening to members of the crowd calling for the coaches to put in Royce Bybee for Jim Mcmahon after a loss to New Mexico. It has been obvious the past few weeks that Riley is more injured than we have been told. Just to see the lack of spit and fire in him lets you know all you need to know. Riley is not Riley, but in place of Riley, you have James Lark who has years in the program, but no big game experience, and you have Hill who will be the future QB, but as a freshman, has even less program experience than Lark. Hard to argue with trying to go with Riley, who though injured, has played with a toughness and grit worthy of any Cougar QB. That decision may have limited what Doman felt he could do with the offense. Add to that, our poor field position for most of the game did not help us. And let’s not forget to credit a great defensive effort from BSU as well.

On the 2 point conversion, we could debate the merits all day.  When Gary Crowton started regularly going for it on 4th downs and converting, we all hailed him as a genius.  When it stopped working, he was stupid.  BYU had the momentum, and has had less than stellar place kicking.  Coach made the call, and we know the result.  Had he kicked the extra point and we lost in overtime, there would be many saying we should have gone for 2. 

Friday Night, BYU’s defense held a Boise State offense, on their home turf, to 0 points. A Boise State team that has only lost at home like 3 times in a whole bunch of games. A Boise State program that is tough Offensive football, as BYU of the 80′s and 90′s used to be. That had to be one of the very best BYU defensive efforts I have ever witnessed.

Bronco has been the architect of that incredible defensive team. Let’s make sure in all the blame, that we blame him from that. For working with a Kyle Van Noy on personal issues and helping him to be more than just a great football player. For bringing in a Ziggy Ansah and developing him into what looks to be an NFL talent.

There is plenty of blame to spread around after a game like this. We have an offense that needs serious help, both in play selection and o-line play. Those issues need addressing and pronto. But while the wild blame flies around, let’s also not forget to place the blame for the defensive outing, squarely where it belongs!

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As Expected, Cougars Tame Wildcats. Bring it on, Utes

Weber State wasn’t expected to be much more than a quaint collection of used blocking sleds and tackling dummies.  They didn’t exceed anyone’s expectations on Saturday.  Riley Nelson needed all of one half to pass for 244 yards and one TD, and the Cougars won, 45-13. 

Weber State may be an instate team, but they really aren’t an instate rival.  Consequently, the Cougars were sure to say all of the right things after the game, complementing Weber State for playing so hard.  Honestly, though, this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score might indicate.  Even the fact that the Cougars were looking ahead to bitter rival Utah couldn’t stop this game from being a blowout.    

The numbers pretty much say it all.  The Cougars outgained the Wildcats in total yardage, 532-254.  The Cougars passed for 307, while the Wildcats passed for 139.  The Cougars gained 225 on the ground, while the Wildcats gained 115.  The Cougars turned the ball over twice, while the Wildcats turned it over three times.  Weber State couldn’t even beat the Cougars in punting with a 50.7 average, because Riley Stephenson punted five times for a 53.2 yard average. 

The first star of the game for the Cougars was Riley Nelson for putting the game away by halftime and not having to risk injury playing through back spasms in the second half.  The second star is Riley Stephenson, who added 6 PAT’s and a field goal to his five punts.  The third star goes to LB Spencer Hadley, with two sacks.  After all, we can’t name Kyle Van Noy the defensive star every week. 

Probably the biggest story of the weekend is that James Lark got semi-meaningful playing time and looked like a competent QB, completing 7 of 10 for 45 yards and 1 TD.  Taysom Hill was 1-3 in limited action, but did run for two touchdowns. 

 Just the fact that we have had to type “Riley Nelson” and “back spasms” in the same sentence is enough cause for concern at QB.  Thankfully, Lark has proven that the Cougars won’t be totally lost if Nelson is hurt for any period of time.  If it did happen, we may end up seeing both QB’s playing a lot.  Hopefully, though, Riley Nelson is allowed to have an uninterrupted senior year.

We apologize if the Weber State post is a bit dismissive or offhand this week, but we are thinking about the exact same thing that every Cougar fan is thinking about: the crass, vile, and overrated Utah Utes.   

We haven’t forgotten how the Utes ran up the score after the game was out of hand, and we haven’t forgotten how much the Utes and their fans celebrated at the Cougars’ expense last year.  It’s said that a little class goes a long way, but the Utes couldn’t even display that much.

You can bet that the Cougars, from coaches to players to maintenance employees, haven’t forgotten it either.  Utes call it “The Beatdown.”  We call it “The Nightmare.”   We remember 7 turnovers, 11 net yards rushing, and numerous uncalled late hits and excessive celebration by the Utes.  We remember the incessant trash-talking.  Oh, and we still remember Derrick Shelby trying to plant the Utes flag in the “Y” of “BYU.”  Funny how players who don’t have to come back the next year do and say some of the stupidest things to rivals after a victory. 

There’s a way to win with class.  You play hard, but in an atmosphere of mutual respect for your opponent, no matter how bitter a rival.  Then, there is what Utah did last year.  Did the Utes play a great game last year?  Yes.  But did they show even a thimbleful of class to go with their ocean of celebration?  Absolutely not.

Fast forward to 2012: the Cougars are 2-0, with a victory over a Pac-12 team that might yet do some damage this year, and a blowout of hopelessly overmatched Weber State.  Meanwhile, the Utes have a blowout over hopelessly overmatched Northern Colorado, and in inexplicable loss to Utah State. 

The Utes had a great time at the Cougars’ expense last year, and went 4-0 in their conference games.  After the BYU game, the Utes were 2-1 with a fairly close loss to USC, and probably thought that they were as good as the media have been telling them they were for years.  The Utes, though, proved that they just aren’t that great of a football team week in and week out, and finished with a 4-5 record in the Pac 12. 

The bottom line is that the Utes are not nearly as great as they and their fans think they are.  They don’t have the front line talent or the depth to compete with elite Pac 12 teams.  They are still a decent team, but their first year in the Pac 12 has to have burst the bubble of all but the most delusional Utes fans. 

And now, to make it worse, starting QB Jordan Wynn was injured last week, and has decided to retire from playing football.  Senior backup Jon Hays went 12-26 for 154 yards against USU after Wynn was hurt.  At this point, it’s a battle between Hays and freshman Travis Wilson to see who gets the nod.  Kyle Willingham probably won’t announce it until game time.  

Either way, it doesn’t look good for the Utes.  They will be playing a supremely motivated BYU team starting a senior QB, while the Utes will be struggling to find an identity, no matter who gets the nod at QB. 

We don’t expect a blowout, but we do expect the Cougars to play harder than even they think it is possible to play.  This game should be a grind, and we expect the Cougars to win by somewhere between 10 and 14 points. 

Most of all, when the Cougars win, there won’t be any trash-talking, excessive celebration, or attempts to vandalize the home field of the Utes.

It’s called “class.”

Cougars Make “The Pirate” Walk the Plank: Cougars Feast on WSU 30-6

All day, the media talked about the return of “The Pirate,” Mike Leach, to Provo as if it were the only relevant fact of the entire game.  Even though he never did anything with the football program except watch the games, and hasn’t really ever said much about his time in Provo, the story was treated as though it was a triumphant homecoming.  ESPN, who televise BYU games and are being sued by Leach, were the worst offenders. 

We know that everyone in the BYU locker room has too much class to say anything about it, but it had to irritate the Cougars that they were an afterthought.  As often happens, the “afterthought” found a way to spoil the party, and they made Leach look quite ineffective while doing it. 

The numbers from this “Cougars vs Cougars” game are brutal.  Leach’s offense only managed to get past the 50-yard line six times, and got past the 20 once.  For only the third time in ten years, a Mike Leach team failed to score a touchdown.  WSU gained a total of 224 yards for the whole game, which was 202 less than BYU. 

WSU was 30-45 passing, for 2 interceptions and 229 yards.  If that seems like it’s more than their total offense, it’s because it is more than their total offense.  BYU held WSU to a minus 5 yards in 16 rushes.  But that’s enough about WSU’s version of the Cougars. 

BYU had 426 yards of total offense: 41 rushes for 123 yards and an average of 3 YPC, and went 26 of 37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Individually, Riley Nelson was 25 of 36 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, while Taysom Hill, who appears to have the inside track on “quarterback of the future” for the Cougars, threw for an 18-yard touchdown on his first and only pass.  

Kaneakua Friel caught 6 passes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns, bringing welcome production at tight end.  Cody Hoffman was off to a good start with 3 catches for 46 yards, but left in the first quarter with a quad contusion.  Skyler Ridley helped pick up the slack with 6 receptions for 54 yards and 1 touchdown.  Michael Alisa led the rushing attack with 13 carries for 54 yards, while seven players got carries, including both quarterbacks. 

On defense, Sophomore CB Jordan Johnson returned an interception 64 yards in his first start.  Less flashy but more important, though, was an interception by Uona Kaveniga to spoil WSU’s first drive.  After that, WSU never got into the red zone again. 

Kyle Van Noy picked up where he left off from last year.  He “only” had four total tackles, but he had two tackles for loss (TFL) for a total of 13 yards, and was his usual disruptive presence.  Brandon Ogletree had 8 total tackles, 4 solo and 1 TFL for 1 yard.  Kaveinga had 5 total tackles with 3 solos, and Spencer Hadley, Jordan Johnson, and Joe Sampson all had 4 tackles. 

Some of the play was sloppy, but the officiating was far worse.  If it wasn’t for penalties at crucial times, this game could have been over after the first half.  WSU’s first field goal happened because of two consecutive personal foul penalties, one on Jordan Johnson and one on Joe Sampson, put WSU in field goal position.  As often happens, the penalties seemed to even themselves out after BYU got far enough ahead that it was obvious WSU wasn’t going to make a comeback, but BYU still had 10 penalties for 112 yards, while WSU had 8 for 73 yards. 

All in all, though, it was a great evening in Provo.  This year, instead of giving out mythical game balls, we are going to take a page from hockey’s book and name three stars for the game.  The only difference is that we are only going to focus on one team, BYU.

The first star is Riley Nelson.  The quarterback who “doesn’t have a strong arm” managed to go 25-36, and showed the usual great leadership skills that everyone in Provo has come to expect.  His skill set probably doesn’t translate to the NFL, but it’s safe to say that Riley Nelson is going to be a leader, wherever he goes after his playing days are over.

The second star goes to Kaneakua Friel.  Friel, pretty much overlooked in the “race” for playing time at TE, became the TE the Cougars have been looking for.  We hope he can do it every week now, but this week was a great way for him to announce his presence to the world.

The third star goes to the entire defense.  We were tempted to give it to Kyle Van Noy, but this was a great and balanced performance by a bunch of guys who didn’t seem to ever lose contain on anyone the entire night, and basically made life miserable for the vaunted Mike Leach offense. 

In our preview, we predicted that this team would be one that showed maturity, balance, and discipline.  We said that there weren’t going to be a lot of flashy players, but that this year’s model could be a very, very good Cougar team.  That is exactly what we got last Thursday. 

This team looks like it could be one of “those” Cougar teams that we talk about for a long time.  We expected this team to have a lot more trouble with Pac 12 athletes than they did.  The fact that the Cougars physically dominated a Pac 12 team, even one that is probably a bit challenged, is very encouraging. 

Weber State is up next, and should be a great chance to get ready for Utah.  Bronco Mendenhall won’t let the Cougars look ahead, but the reality is that the Cougars are probably hoping to put this one away early and keep everyone healthy for the two games after Weber State. 

That would be fine with us. 

 

Football is Almost Here

Finally, after an off-season that was marred by scandals or impending scandals at four major programs, it’s time for the games to be played on the field, where they belong. 

Lately, it’s difficult to tell who’s on probation without a scorecard, so here’s the short version.  Ohio State, North Carolina, and Penn State are not eligible to go to a bowl  this season.  USC is now eligible again after serving two years of probation.  Miami is still waiting for the NCAA hammer to come down, and Oregon is under the microscope.  2011 foe UCF is also ineligible for a bowl, but that’s something like telling a 5-11 point guard that he is “ineligible” to play center in the NBA.

This weekend, the Cougars will have the 8:15 Thursday (10:15 in the east, where most of the major media outlets are headquartered) time slot all to themselves, and will share the spotlight with only three or four really competitive or important games this weekend.  Michigan vs Alabama will be the showcase game this weekend, followed by Michigan State vs Boise State, and SEC contender South Carolina vs Vanderbilt.  Notre Dame vs Navy will be grossly over-hyped, because it is Notre Dame, and they are in Ireland, but it won’t be much of a game.

Luckily, due to the drama around Washington State coach Mike Leach, the Cougars vs Cougars game will get the publicity it deserves, instead of being relegated to second-tier status.  It will be a great chance for the BYU Cougars to spoil the Mike Leach Comeback Party, and show what should be a decent national audience just what they are capable of doing.  We wish Leach well the other eleven games, but would like to see him start out with a resounding “thud” on Thursday. 

The big news of the week is the release of the depth chart for the WSU game.  Though it’s short on surprises, the dearth of information coming out of Fort Mendenhall has made it an object of great anticipation.  There are plenty of experienced, familiar faces at most positions, and there really don’t appear to be many holes in this team.

On offense, senior Riley Nelson gets the nod at QB, as if there was any doubt.  He will be backed up by senior James Lark.  Junior Michael Alisa will start at RB, with senior David Foote and sophomore Iona Pritchard backing him up.  The depth chart didn’t include FB, but it’s probably safe to pencil senior Zed Mendenhall in, with Pritchard backing him up.

The passing game will go on as expected, with junior JD Falslev in the slot, backed up by Foote, with junior Cody Hoffman and sophomore Ross Apo at the WR positions, with juniors Skyler Ridley and Dallin Cutler at backup.  There is a mild surprise at TE, with junior Kaneakua Friel starting and junior Austin Holt backing up.

On the interior line, we have freshman Ryker Mathews at LT, backed up by sophomore Michael Yeck.  Junior Houston Reynolds will start at LG or C; with sophomore Famika Anae at LG or sophomore Blair Tushaus at C, depending on where Reynolds is playing.   On the right side of the line, it’s more traditional, with senior Braden Hansen at RG, backed up by sophomore Brock Stringham, and senior Braden Brown at RT, backed up by junior Manaaki Vaitai. 

On defense, it starts with the DL, and this year’s model looks good.  Senior Romney Fuga starts at NT, backed up by senior Simote Vea.  At RDE, senior Russell Tialavea starts, backed up by Ezekiel Ansah, while senior Eathyn Manumaleuna starts at LDE, with junior Mike Muehlmann at backup.

It’s no secret that the Cougars are extremely strong at LB this year.  At Strongside Linebacker (SLB), junior Spencer Hadley starts, backed up by sophomore Alani Fua.  Senior Uona Kaveinga gets the nod at “Mike” Linebacker (MLB), backed up by sophomore Zac Stout.  At Buck Linebacker (BLB), senior Brandon Ogletree starts, with freshman Manoa Pikula at backup.  All-everything junior Kyle Van Noy returns at Weakside Linebacker (WLB), backed up by freshman Jherremya Leuta-Douyere. 

If there’s any area for concern, it’s the secondary, but they could surprise a lot of people this year.  Sophomore Jordan Johnson beat out senior Robbie Buckner and freshman Micah Hannemann at field corner (FC).  Senior Preston Hadley gets the nod at boundary corner (BC), backed up by junior Kkye Po Vey.  Junior Daniel Sorenson starts at KAT safety, while sophomore Craig Bills backs him up.  At free safety (FS), senior Joe Sampson gets the nod, with senior Mike Hague backing him up.

On special teams, Hoffman and Falslev will return kicks, while Falslev will return punts.  Junior Justin Sorenson returns as kicker, and senior Riley Stephenson returns as the punter.  Senior Reed Hourning will be the long snapper, and Falslev is the holder on kicks.

So, what does it mean to us as Cougar fans?  We see a mature team that will represent the church, school, and program well.  There aren’t a lot of flashy individual players on this team, and Kyle Van Noy is probably going to be the only Cougar who gets a lot of publicity this year, but this is a very solid team, filled with experienced players. 

A great example of this is the DL, which has five seniors and one junior in six depth chart spots.  A total of seven seniors start on defense, with two (and a half) on offense.   This year, the onus will be on the defense to provide most of the senior leadership for the team. 

That’s fine with us.  The Cougars are going to be a team nobody wants to play this year.  They are chronically underrated, which gives them a great “intangible” advantage against most teams.  They aren’t flashy, but are solid.  They won’t do anything spectacular, but they will make opposing offenses look bad.  Riley Nelson might not be a prototypical QB, but he is one of the best leaders the Cougars have ever had.

A lot of teams that lose to the Cougars this year will blame themselves for “self-destructing on offense,” or “giving the game away on defense,” but we will know what really happened.  If the Cougars can keep Riley Nelson healthy, they can win ten or more games this year.  After that, it’s up to bowl politics. 

We like this team a lot, and we like the Cougars’ chances of being THE surprise team in college football this year.  Check back next week to see if we still feel this way.

Check Out The New Mexico State Preview

As fate would have it, the New Mexico State Aggies are in the news this week.  Due to the collapse of the Western Athletic Conference, NMSU will be playing as an FBS Independent next year.  Along with Idaho, they are the only WAC teams that didn’t have a “landing spot” for the 2013 season. 

As for how this will affect them on the field, it probably won’t matter.  MNSU was 4-9 last year, and 2-5 in the WAC.  The Cougars beat them handily last year in Provo, 42-7.  Despite a feeling by many that fourth-year coach DeWayne Walker has them headed in the right direction, they still haven’t really done anything to indicate that they are anything more than a tomato can in the FBS. 

The Aggies return only five starters on offense and three on defense.  If this was an elite program, we would probably think that this was a good thing, because their fourth-year head coach would finally have a team with his own upperclassmen.  The sad reality for the Aggies, though, is that they just aren’t very good. 

On the positive side of their ledger, they won’t suffer repeat losses to Nevada, Hawaii, or Georgia this year, because they are not on the schedule.  They did replace Georgia with Auburn, though, which is a sure loss for them.  Luckily for the Aggies, they replace the other two teams with first year FBS programs UT-San Antonio and Texas State.

With a little bit of luck, they could be 5-5 going into the game with the Cougars.  If that happens, we fully expect them to be 5-6 when the game is over, leaving the Aggies one game against Texas State for a .500 record and bowl eligibility.  We don’t expect them to actually be selected for a bowl at 6-6, though.

So, who do the Aggies have coming back?  They pretty much lost everyone who meant anything to the team.  They also lost both their defensive coordinator and offensive coordinator.  If this was a professional team, we would compare it to an expansion team.  There are just so many wild cards that it is impossible to predict who is going to be playing where by the time they face the Cougars. 

Last year’s starting QB, Andrew Manley, returns, and was named the starter after spring practice.  Two WR’s, Austin Franklin and Kemonte’ Bateman, return with a total of 66 receptions and 7 TD’s between them.  Other than that, it’s a crapshoot.  They lost most of their offensive line from last year, and lost their best running back.  We don’t think they have enough backups, juco transfers, and recruits to replace their losses.

On defense, it’s more of the same.  The Aggies lost their five top tacklers, and their two best returning players on that side of the ball are DT Walton Taumoepeau and LB Bryan Bonilla.  They may be able to stop somebody, but since they allowed 42 points to the Cougars last year before losing their top five tacklers, we don’t think they will be able to stop the Cougars.

This game looks like a great way for the Cougars to end the season and start getting ready for a bowl game.  Even if the Cougars try to keep the score down, we can’t see them scoring less than fifty points against the Aggies.  We’re guessing this game should be somewhere around a 56-7 victory for the Cougars.

News and Notes

Coach Mendenhall has continued his policy of tightly controlling all information coming out of “Fort Mendenhall,” and won’t announce the depth chart until Monday of game week.  The biggest development is that there have been no major injuries.  Many players, including Ross Apo, Cody Hoffman, Brandon Ogletree, and Kyle Van Noy, have been held out of serious contact to ensure their health for the season. 

It can be stated with certainty, though, that most of the battles for starting positions have been decided.  At this point, the Cougars are concentrating on preparing for Washington State.  This is problematic because head coach Mike Leach was out of the game the last two seasons.  One can reasonably surmise that he will be running most of the same offense he ran at Texas Tech, but there will probably be a few added wrinkles.

If there are two things Leach has shown over the years, it’s that he is always searching for new plays and he isn’t afraid to run them.  Leach has had two years as a commentator to study film and exchange ideas with numerous coaches.  We would be quite surprised if he hadn’t added a thing or two to his bag of tricks.  

To us, though, the important questions going into the game are classic football questions.  First, can senior QB Riley Nelson make this a senior year to remember?  The BYU archives are filled with stories of quarterbacks who have had great senior years.  While Nelson won’t be mistaken for a prototypical, rocket-armed BYU quarterback, he is turning out to be one of the best leaders the program has ever had. 

The main goal concerning Nelson is keeping him healthy.  His lack of fear and his proclivity to tuck the ball and struggle for every extra yard when he doesn’t have an open receiver is his best friend for production, but can be his worst enemy for keeping him on the field.  It is very important that Nelson stays healthy this year, at least for the first nine games.  While the Cougars could win all of them with Nelson, they could lose five of them without him. 

The other question is how the Cougars will respond to the relative lack of contact during camp.  Football fans, players, and coaches alike, all cling to certain adages about the game that may or may not be true.  One of the most cherished traditions among the macho culture of college football is to run a tough camp.  The underlying idea is to make camp so tough that players don’t face anything in a game that they haven’t already faced in camp.

Coach Mendenhall wanted to start out with all of his players healthy and able to play, and went against one of football’s most sacred commandments to keep his team healthy.  We’ll know on the 30^th whether it worked out or not.

BYU x Utah State TOTALLY BIASED Preview 2012

Next on the schedule for the Cougars in our ‘Totally Biased’ / ‘Way Too Early’ Previews for 2012 will be Utah State.  While this is still a “rivalry game” for “The Old Wagon Wheel,” it really hasn’t been much of a rivalry since the 1970′s.  Since 1983, the Aggies have won twice.  To put it another way, in the last 23 games, the Cougars are 21-2 against USU. 

USU led the series from its beginning in 1922 until the Cougars tied it in 1991 at 32-32-3, but it has been all Cougars since then.  Since the Aggies tied it back up at 33-33-3 in 1993, they have beaten the Cougars once, in 2010.  Consequently, the Cougars now lead the series, 44-34-3, and it doesn’t look like the trend is going to change anytime soon. 

So, what are we looking at this year from USU?  We would like to say that they are the “up and coming” team they think they are.  Ultimately, though, they are a team that lost to Ohio University in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  They had to win their last five teams to finish the regular season 7-5, but they won all of them by a touchdown or less. 

While teams love to point to this as evidence of their “toughness,” statistics indicate that teams who win a lot of close games one year usually have a worse record the next as “luck evens out.”  So, can USU use last season as a springboard to better things, or are they still a team that is not quite ready for prime time?

Continuing their tradition of being accepted for conferences shortly after the Cougars leave, USU will be joining the MWC in 2013.  This year, though, they get to play in what is left of the WAC.  Playing in a weak conference helped the Aggies run for 282.7 yards per game in 2011.  They return QB Chuckie Keeton, and juco transfer Adam Kennedy.  Both have starting experience.  They lose two of their top three rushers, with only Kerwynn Williams returning from their three-pronged rushing attack of 2011. 

USU does return four of their top five receivers, though.  Matt Austin, Stanley Morrison, Travis Van Leeuwen, and Eric Moats combined for 95 receptions and 1,310 yards last year, out of 186 and 2,270.  It should also be noted that the returning Kerwynn Williams and the two quarterbacks combined for 1,074 yards rushing last year, out of 3,675. 

They also lose three starters on the OL, but they return 75 total career starts.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Matt Wells, who was last year’s QB coach.  Our guess is that there won’t be much of a transition, and that this year’s USU will look a lot like last year’s USU schematically. 

On defense, they will be in the second year of their change from the 4-3 to the 3-4.  If a team is going to take a “quantum leap” after changing schemes on defense, the second year is often the year it happens.  They lose both inside LB’s from 2012: Bobby Wagner, who averaged 102 tackles his last two seasons, and Kyle Gallagher, who had 72.5 tackles. 

They will be moving a few players around, but they should be improved from last year.  They return CB’s Jumanne Robertson and Nevin Lawson, and SS McKade Bradley.  They made plenty of mistakes last year during the adjustment period, but should improve this year. 

USU will run what coach Gary Andersen calls a “power spread.”  It features a lot of running and high percentage passing.  Both quarterbacks are able to run and pass effectively out of the offense, and they should put up some very nice stats this year.  They did manage to put up a total offense of 5,945 yards last year.  The problem, though, was that they were 7-6. 

We like what USU is doing.  We think that, with continued improvement, they can be a top 50 team someday.  They might even win the WAC this year.  But we don’t see them beating the legitimate teams on their schedule.  They are not going to beat Utah, they are not going to beat Wisconsin, and they are not going to beat the Cougars. 

Colorado State, which has USU’s OC from last year, might end up being a pivotal game for the Aggies.  They could even go 9-3 if things go really, really right for them.  They could also go 6-6 if things go terribly wrong.  We are guessing that 8-4 sounds about right, with a loss to the Cougars. 

The problem with USU is that they just don’t have the horses to get the job done against bigger teams.  The spread offense is a great equalizer, but as more teams are using it, defenses are making better adjustments to it.  Ultimately, it still comes down to being able to dominate the line of scrimmage, and we see the Cougars dominating both sides against the Aggies.

Because of the rivalry, we expect the first half to be close.  USU always plays one of their best games against the Cougars, and we expect this to be no exception.  We don’t believe in “110 percent” here, but the Aggies will definitely get the maximum output from their team in the first half.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, emotion and effort can only take a team so far before fatigue and talent take over.  The Aggies are looking at superior personnel on both sides of the ball, and their scheme isn’t going to fool the Cougars.  We expect USU to get a lot of yards outside of the red zone.  The sticking poing for the Aggies, though, is that the field compresses in the red zone, and often negates much of the advantage of the spread.  When that happens, it all comes back to personnel. 

We see this game being close for most of the first half, with the Cougars starting to rip some holes down the middle toward the end of the half, taking advantage of the DL and the inexperienced ILB’s.  We see the Cougars taking control of the game by scoring the last touchdown of the first half and the first touchdown of the second half, before pulling away to win by at least seventeen points.

(Way Too Early) Utah Utes Preview 2012

One of the obstacles that the Cougars often have to put up with is that other schools often detest them just for being BYU.  BYU is one of those schools that a lot of teams see as a “rivalry game,” even though they have no reason to.  Sometimes, this puts the Cougars at a slight disadvantage, because it seems like they get every team’s best showing of the year, while the Cougars can mathematically only have one “best showing” per year. 

Against Utah, though, there will be no debit in the “intangibles” column.  Everyone remembers what happened last year, (UGH) when the myth of Jake Heaps began to unravel before our eyes.  Everyone remembers how the game quickly got out of hand.  Most of all, though, everyone remembers the classless behavior of pretty much everyone associated with the Utes, from players and coaches to a bunch of their obnoxious fans (although some fans were able to enjoy the victory with class).

For a year now, everyone on the team has had to live with the taunts of Utah fans, (UGH) who get more mileage out of one victory than most fans get out of a perfect season.  Those Utah fans conveniently “forget” that while the Cougars were going 10-3, their Utes were being introduced to the harsh reality of Pac 12 football, to the tune of a 4-5 conference record, on the way to an 8-5 season, even including their win over the Cougars.

One of the fundamental tenets of football is that when you get a team down, you eventually “call off the dogs” so as not to run up the score.  When teams play against tomato cans, this doesn’t often work, because the second and even third-string team can usually walk over them.  When playing teams that are “rivalry games,” or somewhat equal, though, it is obvious when a team is trying to run up the score and when they aren’t.  The Utes not only ran up the score, but celebrated as if they had won the BCS Championship on a last-minute, 99-yard drive. 

And now, fast forward to 2012.  You can rest assured that every player in the locker room at Brigham Young University remembers the late hits and the celebrations.  Every player in the locker room is going to remember the final score.  And a very tough senior quarterback with some clutch football under his belt is going lead the Cougars onto the field against the Utes.  In other words, the “intangibles” are going to be in favor of the Cougars. No matter how much Utah wants to win against BYU in 2012, the Cougars are going to want it more.

So, what do the Utes look like for 2012?  As always with college football, there are losses that appear to be tough.  They graduated OT’s John Cullen and Tony Bergstrom, but return most of their offense, including QB Jordan Wynn.  They return seven starters on defense, with losses including linebackers Matt Martinez and Chaz Walker, cornerback Conroy Black, and DE Derrick Shelby. 

Wynn is expected to be the starting QB, but he could face stiff competition from freshman Travis Wilson, who had a very good spring game.  Adding to the intrigue is that Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow left for Hawaii after one year, and the Utes are playing for their third coordinator in three years. 

A new offensive coordinator decreases the advantage that an incumbent QB has, because everyone is “starting over” on offense.  So, the incumbent QB doesn’t have the advantage in familiarity with the offense that he would have in a standard situation. 

New OC Brian Johnson, who Cougar fans remember well, was the quarterback coach on last year’s staff, and is only 25 years old.  He is an old tormentor of the Cougars, and his last memory on the field against the Cougars was a 48-24 victory in which he threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns, for a 2-1 record against the Cougars. 

He says that his offense is “not going to be that much different than what we’ve done,” but there will still be some adjustments.  He plans on using a hybrid of the spread and pro set offenses, to a point where he doesn’t like to label his offense as either.  The main question here is whether his experience and recent transition from the field to the OC position can provide enough continuity to mitigate the change in coordinators.

So, on offense, the Utes return Wynn, a decent crop of receivers including DeVonte Christopher, and a very good running back in John White IV.  They return three-fifths of a decent offensive line, and replace the graduates with two guys who are over 315 pounds.

On defense, they return seven starters under a head coach whose “bread and butter” is defense.  All-Pac 12 DT Star Lotulelei leads a DL that looks to be very tough again.  He is joined at the other DT position by Dave Kruger, who is also seen as an all-conference candidate.  Trevor Reilly, who forced four fumbles last year, returns at LB, and the secondary looks solid at CB, but very good at both safety positions, with Eric Rowe at free safety and Brian Blechan at strong safety.  Rowe played last year as a true freshman, and made four freshman All-American teams. 

The Utes return their kicker, holder, and punter, and have a bevy of experienced options for returning both kicks and punts.  Their special teams will be very solid, and we don’t expect to see many mistakes from them.

All in all, we expect the Utes to probably be a bit tentative on offense, but very strong, especially up the middle on defense.  This should be another hard-fought rivalry game.  The positives for the Cougars are the aforementioned “intangibles” and the fact that an experienced and solid Riley Nelson will be leading the Cougars. 

Last year, the Cougars self-destructed and gave the game to the Utes.  This year, the Utes are going to have to work hard for every inch they gain on the field.  These two teams are probably fairly even in talent, but the Utes put the hammer down too hard last year, and “partied too heartily,” both on the sidelines and after the game. 

Ultimately, it is going to come down to intangibles.  And every intangible in this game is in favor of the Cougars. Intangibles don’t win games, but they sure can help.

Know Your Oppenent: Washington State

As most of you know by now, the season opener against Washington State has been moved to August 30, and will be an ESPN Thursday night game.  This matchup was going to get some national attention anyway, but now it has a prime time slot to itself, and Provo will be the center of the football universe for that night.

This is an extremely compelling matchup for a number of reasons.  The first reason is the return of “The Pirate,” Mike Leach.  Leach’s firing at Texas Tech has been so well-documented that a sportswriter at ESPN got suspended over it.  Amazingly, Craig James, who most people thought abused his position to get Leach fired because the player in question was James’ son, was not the person who got suspended. 

Instead, Bruce Feldman, who was the closest thing ESPN had to a serious journalist, was the person who got suspended.  Of course, ESPN never actually admitted to suspending Feldman, who suddenly found himself with no assignments.  The result was a “Free Bruce” campaign on Twitter, in which a lot of writers from competing news outlets cooperated.

Fast forward to two and a half years later.  Feldman is holding the fort at CBS Sports, while Leach is a New York Times Bestselling author who now has the head coaching job at Washington State, and Craig James is someone who gave up his cushy job at ESPN so that he could amass an incredible 4 percent of the vote in a Senate primary in Texas. 

Despite ESPN’s terrible decision-making and their role in getting Leach fired, we expect them to play up the “Return of the Pirate” angle.  They almost have to, because if they don’t, they will be accused of both harboring a grudge against Leach, and showing favoritism toward BYU because of their television contract.

The second reason why this Cougars vs Cougars matchup will be so compelling is that a few of the media have looked at BYU’s schedule, looked at who is coming back, and realize that the Cougars have a great chance at making it to a BCS bowl this year, and an outside chance of making the BCS Championship game.  Speaking of “Cougars vs Cougars,” for the rest of this piece, WSU will be referred to as WSU, and BYU will be referred to as the Cougars.

So, what can we expect from “The Pirate” and Washington State?  Wide open play on both offense and defense.  Mike Leach made his reputation on his pass-heavy version of the spread offense, but he is known for aggressive defenses that like to blitz early and often. 

On offense, look for senior quarterback Jeff Tuel to throw the ball to 6′ 4” junior wideout Marquess Wilson a lot.  Wilson caught 82 passes for 1,388 yards last year on a young team that only won four games, and whose offense was ranked 64^th out of 120 teams.  Tuel is expected to get competition from sophomore Connor Halliday if Halliday can remain healthy.

WSU has two sophomore running backs, Rickey Galvin and Marcus Mason, who rushed for a combined 5.7 yards per carry in 133 carries as freshmen.  They also have three sophomore receivers who will probably get a lot more work than they did last year: Kristoff Williams, Bobby Ratliff, and Isiah Myers.

At this point, we don’t fully know what to expect from the WSU offense.  Leach has always been known as very innovative and creative on the offensive side of the ball, and has had two years of watching everyone else to refine his offense.  He is rumored to be seriously thinking about installing a lot of Pistol formation this season, but nobody seems to know for sure exactly what is going to happen. 

Also, we don’t know how well the offense, especially the line, will adjust to the new scheme.  Remember that this is the first game WSU will be playing under Leach and in whatever version of the spread his offense turns out to be.  Leach didn’t really show a lot in the spring game, either, so it is anyone’s guess how WSU looks on offense.

On defense, WSU finished 100th in 2011.  The good news for them is that the team actually finished dead last in the BCS two years ago, at 120^th.  New defensive coordinator Mike Breske will be switching the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4. 

In their favor is that WSU returns 13 of the 16 players who had at least one tackle per game last year.  Their front seven was the strength of their defense last year, and they had better do the same thing this year, because the defensive backfield looks terrible.  They have two adequate players in Safety Doene Bucannon and corner Damante Horton.  Other than that, it could be the Keystone Kops in the defensive backfield for WSU.

WSU won four games last year.  If they can get to six or seven this year, it will be a huge improvement.  We don’t see one of those victories happening in Provo, though.  WSU will improve as the year goes along, but they won’t be familiar with the schemes on either side of the ball, and they should make a lot of mistakes against the Cougars.

The determining factor is that Riley Nelson will make WSU pay if they make mistakes on defense.  We can’t see the WSU defense stopping Nelson and the receivers who are coming back this year.  We see the combination of Ross Apo, Cody Hoffman, and JD Falslev to be too much for the WSU secondary to handle.  Also, Michael Alisa will be even better at running back after a decent year last year, and Austin Holt should continue his improvement at Tight End.

We can’t even begin to figure out what is going to happen on defense for the Cougars, because the WSU offense is such an unknown quantity.  What we see happening, though, is WSU not having enough experience to solve the underrated BYU defense. 

We expect a lot of mistakes from both teams in a close first half, but the Cougars should pull away in the second half. 

Last updated by Jim at July 2, 2012.

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