Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Preview

When:  December 30  10:00 am, MST

Where:  Ford Stadium, Dallas

Teams:  BYU (9-3, independent) vs Tulsa (8-4, CUSA)

Tulsa is quite similar to the Cougars.  The Cougars won eight of their last nine games, while Tulsa won seven of their last eight.  Tulsa ran better numbers than the Cougars this year, finishing 23^rd in the FBS in total offense with 454.4 yards per game, and 24^th in scoring at 34.1 points per game.  Meanwhile, the Cougars finished 41^st in total offense with  410.8 yards per game, and 42^nd in points with 30.6 points per game. 

On defense, Tulsa allowed 27.6 points per game this year, while the Cougars allowed only 20.3 points per game to rank 23^rd in the FBS.  Remember that the Cougars’ total is skewered greatly by the Utah game getting out of hand to the tune of 54 Ute points.  

 Both teams lost to higher-ranked teams but took care of business against lower-ranked teams.    Both teams are balanced, though Tulsa is a little better at running the ball.  Tulsa averaged 204.6 yards per game on the ground and 249.8 in the air.  The Cougars gained 165.8 on the ground and 245.0 in the air. 

For Tulsa, here are the players to watch out for.

G.J Kinne, QB. 

Kinne started all twelve games for the Golden Hurricane and finished with 230 completions in 359 attempts for 2876 yards with 12 interceptions and 25 TD’s.  He also ran for 513 yards in 112 carries. 

Ja’Terian Douglas, RB.

Douglas ran the ball 108 times for 909 yards, which comes out to an impressive average of 8.2 yards per carry.  He scored four touchdowns. 

Trey Watts, RB.

Watts ran the ball 147 times for 872 yards for an average of 5.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns. 

Willie Carter, H-back/slot receiver.

Carter caught 61 passes in eleven games for 868 yards for an average of 14.2 per catch and 78.9 per game.  He had seven touchdowns and a long catch of 69 yards.

Bryan Burnham, Wide Receiver.

Burnham caught 50 passes in twelve games for 737 yards, an average of 14.7 yards per catch and 61.4 per game.  He had eight touchdowns and a long catch of 56 yards.

Carter and Burnham are just two of five receivers who got serious time and gained at least 355 yards in 2011. 

On defense, LB’s Cornelius Arnick (91 solo tackles) and Shawn Jackson (63 solo tackles) lead the way, with  Dexter McCoil (FS),Marco Nelson (SS), and LB Alan Dock right behind them.   

All in all, this looks to be a competitive matchup for the Cougars.  The Cougars are going for their third consecutive bowl win, which is something they have never been able to accomplish.  They are also going for their fifth ten-win season in the last seven years, which would put head coach Bronco Mendelhall in a class with Bob Stoops and Mark Richt as coaches who had five seasons of ten wins or more in their first seven years. 

The biggest question for the Cougars is who will back up Riley Nelson at QB if he gets injured.  James Lark was the backup QB when Nelson was injured, but we can’t even pretend to know exactly what is going on with the backup position right now.  All we can do is hope that Nelson is able to play the entire game, giving OC Brandon Doman ample time this spring to develop some depth at the position for next season. 

We have a feeling, though, that Doman may want Nelson to slide or go out of bounds a bit more often in the bowl game. 

Our take:

We think that Tulsa will have problems moving the ball against the Cougar defense.  We also expect the defense to come up with a turnover or two.  We see the game being played close to the vest in the first half, with the Cougars finally pulling away in the fourth quarter as Riley Nelson’s leadership and versatility makes the difference. 

BYU 34, Tulsa 14.