Cougars win Third Straight Bowl Game

In August, we correctly guessed that anything less than ten regular season wins would keep the Cougars from a BCS bid and put them in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces bowl. Even though the bowl was in Fort Worth, the finish was more worthy of their early 1980’s appearances in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The Cougars came from behind twice, and would finally win the game in the last minute on a play for the ages.

As has been their habit against good teams, the Cougars started slow. Tulsa started their first drive on their own 24, and Brandon Ogletree was whistled for a facemask penalty, giving the Golden Hurricane the ball on their own 39. The Cougars then allowed Tulsa to drive down the field 61 yards for a touchdown in a little over six minutes. Tulsa would net 19 yards on the ground and 42 in the air. This would turn out to be one more rushing yard than Tulsa got for the rest of the game combined.

As we often see in bowl games against reasonably well-matched teams, most of the game was a defensive struggle. The Cougars scored on a 35 yard field goal by Justin Sorenson with seventeen seconds left in the first quarter to close the margin to 7-3 for Tulsa. On Tulsa’s second offensive drive in the second quarter, the defense went to sleep for four plays, and it would cost them an 86-yard drive for a touchdown that took only 1:16 off of the clock. A seven-yard run was followed by passes of 50, 14, and 14 yards to put Tulsa ahead 14-3.

At the end of the first half, special teams came up big, as David Foote recovered a Justin Sorenson punt that was fumbled by JD Ratliff at the Tulsa 17. If there’s one thing the Cougars have proven this year, it’s that they are able to take advantage of opportunities caused by turnovers. Riley Nelson did what great QB’s and teams do, throwing a 17-yard pass to Cody Hoffman on the first play for a touchdown to bring the Cougars to within 14-10 with twelve seconds left in the first half. On the play, which will probably be in a lot of highlight reels, Matt Reynolds lost his helmet, but then flattened Tulsa DE Cory Dorris, giving Nelson time to make what turned out to be a crucial throw.

In the second half, though, it was more defense. Finally, with 1:41 left in the third quarter, Nelson hit Hoffman with another TD pass, this time for 31 yards, to put the Cougars on top, 17-14. With 10:42 left in the fourth quarter, though, the defense would once again allow a big play for Tulsa, as they took advantage of a short field. They completed a 58-yard drive with a 30-yard TD pass, and would go on top, 21-17.

After failed drives by both teams, the Cougars would get the ball back at the Tulsa 48 with 4:18 and the season on the line. Riley Nelson will never be confused with a classic, drop-back, rifle-armed NFL quarterback, but he is one of the most competitive and fearless quarterbacks in the game. The last drive showed almost everything that is great about the Cougars in four minutes and seven seconds. After three plays for one yard, it was fourth and nine on the Tulsa 47-yard line. Failing to find an open receiver, Riley Nelson tucked the ball and ran 14 yards for a first down.

The Cougars then went to the running game with Bryan Kariya and JJ DiLuigi getting the ball to the Tulsa 13-yard line, and Riley Nelson getting the ball to the eight. Nelson would complete a pass to Marcus Mathews at the two. Then came the play that had the football world paying attention to the Cougars. BYU had no time outs left, and Nelson was yelling the signal to “clock” the ball. As the ball was snapped, everyone on the team did what they would normally do in a “clock” situation.

Everyone, that is, but Riley Nelson and Cody Hoffman. Nelson threw the ball to Hoffman on the right side of the end zone for a touchdown with eleven seconds left on the clock. A Justin Sorenson extra point, and subsequent kickoff into the end zone for a touchback would leave Tulsa with eleven seconds to go eighty yards. Tulsa would lateral the ball twice and fumble it once before Travis Uale would cover the ball up for the victory.

Game balls go to Riley Nelson, Cody Hoffman, and Matt Reynolds on offense. On defense, Kyle Van Noy had another solid game, with nine solo tackles, two sacks, and one QB hurry. David Foote gets the special teams game ball for his fumble recovery, and Justin Sorenson gets one for a very consistent game and for not giving Tulsa a chance to win the game on his kickoff.

In winning the Armed Forces Bowl, the Cougars won three bowl games in a row for the first time in their history. They also wrapped up their fifth 10-win season in the last six years, which they have only done once before, from 1980-1985. At the beginning of the season, we knew the Cougars had a chance of having a special season, but that it would take a few bounces going the right way for it to happen. All in all, though, 2011 turned out to be a very good year for BYU.

On the good side, BYU has found its next great quarterback. Once again, Riley Nelson probably won’t make it to the NFL, but he is the consummate team player, and one of the toughest quarterbacks in college. Most of all, Riley Nelson is a leader. Greatness is often measured in stats. With Riley Nelson, though, it has to be “measured” by the intangibles.

To be a great quarterback, you have to win games. Also, your team has to follow you. Riley Nelson has a very rare talent. He is able to make the team play better when he is in the game. Like a great point guard in basketball, Nelson’s strength is his ability to manage the team and get the job done, regardless of individual stats or glory.

When Nelson lost his job to Jake Heaps, a lesser man would have pouted and complained about “losing his starting job due to injury.” Riley Nelson didn’t do that, though. Instead, he “manned up,” contributed to the team in any way he could, and made sure he would be prepared for his next opportunity. When Nelson finally got the opportunity, he took full advantage of it, and the Cougars showed their respect by the way they responded with Nelson behind center. By the time it was all over, the Cougars had another ten-win season.

Thank you, Riley Nelson, for being such a great leader this season. The Cougars are in good hands for 2012.

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Armed Forces Bowl Highlights

Happy Senior Night

Senior day or night, like homecoming, is best done against a tomato can.  Seniors play their last home game, fans get to celebrate them, and those who stuck it out but didn’t play a lot often see some time in the fourth quarter.  The 2011 version against New Mexico State was a great final home game for the seniors and some of them made great contributions to the 42-7 victory.  

If honor of the seniors, we’ll look at some of their contributions first.  JJ DiLuigi ran 12 times for 75 yards, for an average of 6.25 per carry.  It puts him at 16th on the all time list, which is pretty good for someone who isn’t a burner but maximized every bit of his talent while in Provo. 

Bryan Kariya added another 30 yards and one touchdown in 7 carries.   Matt Marshall got one carry, but he made the most of it with a two-yard touchdown.  TE Matthew Edwards caught a 9-yard TD pass.  Terence Brown didn’t show up on any stat sheets, but his contributions on the offensive line have been greatly appreciated by everyone who has played QB during his stay in Provo, and he played a typically solid game.  

There were plenty of contributions on defense, too.  Jadon Wagner caused a fumble in the first half that was recovered by Jameson Frazier, and Wagner recovered one in the third quarter.  

As for the rest of the team, Jake Heaps was solid once again, putting up the kind of numbers we expected at the beginning of the year.  He was 21 of 36 for 238 yards with one interception and four touchdowns.  For his efforts, Heaps was named Independent Player of the Week.  It should be noted that Heaps took his demotion with class and dignity, didn’t complain, never stopped working, and stayed ready in case he was needed.  It is great to see Heaps rewarded for doing things the Cougar way.  

Ross Apo lead the team in receiving with five catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns.  JD Falslev and McKay Jacobson were over 40 yards, JJ DiLuigi had three catches for 31 yards.  Cody Hoffman and Kaneakua Friel were over 20 yards.  

On defense, Preston Hadley and Brandon Ogletree had seven tackles each to lead the Cougars, while Kyle Van Noy gave a typical Kyle Van Noy performance with 6 solo tackles and two tackles for loss.  The only thing missing for Van Noy was another turnover.  

All in all, the Cougars were very workmanlike in their methodical dismantling of New Mexico State, with seven points each in the first and fourth quarters, and fourteen points each in the second and third quarters.   The defense was also solid, allowing one touchdown in the second quarter but nothing the rest of the way.  

Congrats to the Cougars for another fine performance.  Next up: Hawaii in two weeks.  

Cougars Accept Bowl Bid

We already knew this would happen, so it is no surprise, but the Cougars were officially extended their guaranteed berth in the Armed Forces Bowl against a yet-to-be-named CUSA team.  Most of CUSA is similar to Central Florida, who played the Cougars tough but were ultimately not quite good enough.  

The only sticking point is that this game is being played on SMU’s home field, and SMU is currently projected to be the opponent.  Playing a road game against an up-and-coming team that is angry because it didn’t do better is not exactly a fair deal.  On the bright side, SMU is currently 6-5, with four losses in their last five games.  We’ll know later, but the intangibles appear to be solely on the side of the Mustangs.  

What is Going On with the Big East?

A few weeks ago, it looked like the Cougars to the Big East, along with Boise State, UCF, Houston, and aforementioned SMU, was a done deal.  Now, it is reported that the Cougars are holding the deal up, and that San Diego State might get their berth if they don’t settle by the end of next week.  

Reportedly, the first snag is money because BYU has a great TV deal.  That is negotiable and probably will require concessions on both sides.  The second factor, though, may be too much to overcome.  

Reportedly, the Cougars want assurances that the Big East will keep their BCS Automatic Qualifier status.  They want to be able to return to independent status with no penalty if the Big East loses its AQ status.  This is inherently fair because it simply forces the Big East to deliver on what they promise.  The problem here is that the Big East doesn’t see it that way.  

As it sits right now, the Cougars can realistically get into a BCS game by finishing  11-1 and being ranked higher than Notre Dame.   Some years, 10-2 might even be enough.  Even with all of the ups and downs this year, the Cougars can still finish 9-3.  The point is that they are really close to being able to make it to a BCS bowl as an independent. 

Therefore, it is perfectly natural for the Cougars to protect themselves before entering any agreement with any conference.  The politics here are very basic: the conferences want to lock everybody in with extreme punitive damages for leaving, while the schools want the flexibility to evolve with the current landscape.  

We hope that the Cougars don’t give in on their requirement that the Big East puts its money where its mouth is.  The Cougars are a very desirable program, and a move to the Big 12 or Pac 12 would make more sense than one to the Big East.  

The only real reason for the Cougars to join the Big East is for the AQ berth.  The travel, even in a “Big East Western Division,” will be very demanding.  If the Big East’s AQ berth disappears, the Cougars should be allowed to do the same. 

After all, what’s fair is fair.

UPDATE: The Big East deal appears to be dead. We’ll see, but BYU appears to really be in this independent status for the long haul.

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BYU vs NMSU Highlight Video

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BYU vs Idaho

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BYU vs OSU Highlight Video

As you already guessed, we aren’t really in Austin.  But the blogs Barking Carnival and Burnt Orange Nation are.  

They have a lot to worry about in Austin right now.  The Texas A&M fallout followed by the revelation that four teams might be ready to bolt from their conference are causing a bit of distraction.  

First: what those bloggers think of the Cougars?

The offense is led by a second-year QB who is talented but can be rattled.  They are most worried about Ross Apo (a former Longhorn commit) and Cody Hoffman.

They are extremely concerned about the DL and LB’s, but see the secondary as a weak spot which can be exploited by spreading the field and protecting QB Garrett Gilbert.  They are concerned about their ability to run on the Cougars’ front seven.  

What to look for on offense:

Garrett Gilbert may have been irreparably damaged when he relieved an injured Colt McCoy in the BCS title game against Alabama in January 2010.  He sputtered to a 5-7 record last season, bringing down the wrath of the sizable Texas alumni and fanbase.  

As the son of former NFL QB Gale Gilbert, he is seen as having a lot of potential, and has been groomed to be a QB since he was a youngster.  So far, though, he has had a lot of trouble at Texas.  Last week, in Texas’ victory over Rice, which can only be described as a tomato can, Gilbert went 13 of 23 for 229 yards and 1 touchdown.  It isn’t much by BYU standards, but is his best game so far.  

RB is by committee.  Fozzy Whitaker caught four passes for 51 yards and one touchdown.  Malcolm Brown ran 16 times for 86 yards, “big” back Joe Bergeron ran six times for 26 yards, and Donald Junior Monroe ran five times for 41 yards.  

The WR’s look good.  Mike Davis had three catches for 115 yards.  That is not a typo.  Jaxon Shipley is both quick and fast, but tends to lose concentration.  John Harris, Dominique Jones, and Darius White will also see time.

The OL doesn’t have any star power, but the Longhorns did get 505 yards of total offense against Rice.

On defense, they have checked their egos in at the door and play very well as a unit.  They have three preseason all-Big 12 players: DL Kheeston Randall, MLB Keenan Robinson, and SS Blake Gideon.  Suffice to say that the Texas Defense is the best collection of players the Cougars will face all year.  If they can pressure Jake Heaps into mistakes, and their DB’s can keep the Cougars’ receivers in check, it could be a long game.  

This game is too close to call, but we will find out a lot about where the Cougars are on the football food chain this Saturday.

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Greetings from Austin

We knew ahead of time that Ole Miss, even though they might not have a lot of great skill players, had a lot of athletes.  The football-mad south produces more athletes than you can imagine.  The South was the last place the NFL expanded to, and the last place integration happened.  This meant a lot of interest in high school football, and a lot of tradition was born then.  We still see the results of that tradition today in the numerous recruits that come out of the South.  

It took awhile for the Cougars to adjust to the speed they saw on Saturday.  If speed was the only factor that counted, the Cougars would have been in trouble.  Luckily for BYU, strength, coaching, and maturity also count.  And that maturity finally came into play in the fourth quarter.  

The Cougars were down 13-0.  They had driven the ball a lot, but just couldn’t find a way to score.  To me, it just looked like another Holiday Bowl opportunity.  The Cougars have a tradition of wild comebacks, and they were “only” thirteen points down.  

A lot of times, in a noisy stadium on the road, down by thirteen midway through the fourth quarter, teams hang their heads.  As we all know, it takes a lot more than thirteen points to make a team with this tradition hang their heads.  We all know the rest.  Jake Heaps finally got the team into the end zone, and Kyle Van Noy would make the play of the game on Mississippi’s ensuing posssession.  

The crowd, which had been raucous and was having a great time at the Cougars’ expense, was suddenly quiet.  And the Cougars would leave with an opening victory over the Rebels.  

The Good:

Despite receivers having trouble getting open, Jake Heaps kept his poise and was able to will the team into the end zone.  He ended up completing 24 of 38 for 225 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  

Kyle Van Noy made the play of the game when he picked up Zack Stoudt’s fumble and took it in for the winning score, but the defense played very well all day, limiting Ole Miss to 208 yards in the air and 64 on the ground.  

Ross Apo finally showed some of the speed and elusiveness that helped him get into the lineup with a touchdown catch for BYU’s first score.  

The Bad:

Too little speed.  The receivers had problems getting open against a second-division SEC team.  The difference between a team like Ole Miss and a Southern team like Texas is the skill level.  Ole Miss has a lot of athletes that are “projects.”  Texas has a lot of players who “project” to the NFL.  The Cougars will have to recruit more speed in the coming years to beat teams that have both speed and skill, such as Texas, or any top division SEC team, on a regular basis.  

Sealing the deal.  The Cougars left 10 points on the field in the second half, and wasted drives of 36, 24, and 30 yards in the first half.  They got away with it this time, but it won’t work against upper-echelon competition.  

The Ugly:  Absolutely nothing.  A win is a win, especially on the road against the SEC.  We’ll call the first three quarters a learning experience, and the fourth quarter a masterpiece.  

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A Great Start for the Cougars

The effects of this contract cannot be understated.  By moving to independent status, BYU has gone from a regional curiosity that occasionally gets national exposure to a team that is now front and center on the national stage.  It is said that you cannot buy that kind of exposure.  That makes it especially good that ESPN is actually paying BYU to give them exposure on national television a minimum of three times a year, with options for more games on ESPNU.

The Cougars are already seeing immediate benefits from their association.  ESPN is working behind the scenes to negotiate better matchups for BYU.  It was ESPN who did much of the legwork that resulted in the impending series against Texas.  ESPN is actively trying to set the Cougars up with more compelling matchups starting in 2013.

There are two very important aspects to this development.  First of all, it means that a national audience will see BYU play marquee games against elite teams on national television on a regular basis.  More importantly, though, it provides the Cougars with a great opportunity, but one that has inherent risks.

The marquee games are a great opportunity, but they could also backfire if the Cougars don’t play well in those games.  The exposure is great, but only if you put your best foot forward.  This year and next year will be “trial runs.”  This year is probably going to be a year of transition.  The Cougars may turn out great this year, and they may catch Texas at a great time to get a big win on national TV.

But this year isn’t as important as next year.  And starting in 2013, the Cougars could become perennial BCS game contenders if they make the right moves and get the right breaks.

BYU is at a slight disadvantage compared to other schools because most of the players are LDS members.  In addition, non-members are required to adhere to the BYU honor code, which is based on LDS tenets.  There are two advantages to this requirement, though.

The first is that there are almost never issues involving ethics or the criminal justice system.  LDS members just don’t get into trouble as much as non-members do.  To be fair, kids who go to almost any church have less brushes with the law and less character issues than kids who don’t.  Nevertheless, it is a huge benefit to know that you can trust your teammates.  And it is a huge benefit for a coach to know that he won’t get a phone call at 3:00 am with bad news about a player.

The second advantage is that so many players go on missions and come back older and more mature, both physically and mentally.  Players leave for missions as boys and come back as men.  No matter how you cut it, a 23 year-old man is going to outplay a 20 year-old boy more often than not if the talent levels are remotely in the same ballpark.

The disadvantage, though, is that the talent pool is too small.  There are approximately 14.1 million LDS members worldwide; the US population is over 300 million.  Character counts a lot, but it’s nice to have a talent pool 20 times bigger than that of a competitor, too.  At the elite level, drawing from a pool that is 20 times smaller than your competitors is a definite disadvantage.

For comparison, imagine if Notre Dame fielded a team that was almost all Catholic.  There are 68 million Catholics in the US.  This is four times as many as worldwide Mormons, but only a fifth of the US population.  Even though their team has a great pipeline to many powerhouse Catholic schools, most of those schools recruit non-Catholics to play football.

The actual number of Catholics playing for Notre Dame right now is not available, but it can’t be more than 15 percent, and is probably a lot closer to 10 percent.

What does this all mean?  It means that if the Cougars want to contend for national championships on a regular basis, they are going to have to find non-member players who are willing to adhere to the BYU honor code.  The ESPN contract can only help BYU in that regard.

Ultimately, the bottom line is that the Cougars are a very good program right now  Their core will always be dependable, high-character LDS members who show up and play smart football.  ESPN won’t affect that either way.  BYU will always get the best Mormon players, because it is by far the best school for them to attend.

But the biggest potential benefit of the ESPN contract is that it could help the Cougars get enough non-members out of the immensely bigger talent pool to help them make that transition from very good team to perennial National Championship contender.

There are two type of schools where players are required to have more discipline than in the average program.  The first is schools that are based on church doctrines and actually enforce them.  The second is service academies.  These schools, such as BYU, Navy, Army, or the Air Force Academy, usually get better results on the field than their talent levels on paper would dictate.

This is no accident.  Imagine what could happen when you mix BYU discipline with a 6-2 wide receiver or lock-down corner who runs a 4.3 forty.  Or an RB who weighs 225 and runs a 4-4 forty.  Now, imagine having just ten of those players, who normally wouldn’t have BYU on their list, on the team every year.  That could be just enough to put the Cougars over the top.

If the Cougars take care of business on ESPN, it could very well happen.

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The ESPN Contract and National Exposure

When the late Ben Hogan was in his prime, he was in Canada for the Canadian Open. At the time, Canada’s best golfer was a young man named Moe Norman, who would later become the icon of Natural Golf. Norman was one of the purest ball-strikers in the history of the game, but unknown outside of Canada.

A Canadian told Hogan he had to watch Norman, and practically dragged him to the range where Norman was practicing. Hogan watched Norman hit a ball straight down the middle with his then-unorthodox swing, and Hogan turned to his friend and called the straight shot an accident. After Norman hit about a hundred more balls to within about 15 feet of where the first one landed, Hogan is said to have walked up to him, shook his hand, and said “keep hitting those accidents, kid.”

What does that have to do with BYU football? Everything. Because every time the Cougars beat a high-profile program, it is seen as an “accident” or a “fluke.” In the eyes of the fanbases of high-profile opponents, the Cougars never actually win, but it’s always because the other team had an “off day” or “bad luck.”

The move to independent status and the ESPN contract gives BYU a chance to change that perception. As mentioned last week, the Cougars now have a chance to be seen in the same light as Notre Dame instead of being just another team from a non-BCS conference.

The biggest opportunity in the upcoming season is Texas. You remember Texas? They are the team everybody wanted to join their conference last year. They are the team that got the Big 12 to allow them to have their own TV network independent of the conference. They are a team that could easily go independent itself in a few years. And they are ripe for a major upset.

Texas has a lot of problems. Coach Mack Brown will probably be mentioned on everyone’s “hot seat” list this year. Their offense has major personnel problems, and it starts at QB. Garrett Gilbert might have been a decent QB if Colt McCoy hadn’t been injured in the National Championship game against Alabama last year.

Instead, Gilbert had to play against Alabama after McCoy got hurt, and is still shell-shocked from the experience over a year later. Gilbert is being pressed for the starting job by sophomore Case McCoy. Yes, he’s the little brother of Colt McCoy. He only threw one pass last year, though.

Consequently, the depth chart for Texas at QB has Gilbert, who most hold responsible for Texas’ 5-7 year last year; McCoy, a sophomore who has thrown one pass in major college; and a couple of players most Longhorn fans hope never see playing time except in mop-up duty.

They don’t really have much of anyone who has proven themselves on offense coming back. They do have a lot of kids who were 4 and 5-star recruits who haven’t done much and are hungry to prove last year was an aberration, but there is no guarantee that an offense best described as “anemic” last year is going to be any better this year.

Defense, though, is another story. The Longhorns will probably be terrible on offense, but they have the potential to be a very good defense. Watch for Alex Okafor, a DE who had 5 sacks in the spring game.

All in all, the Texas game is a great opportunity for the Cougars to make a huge impression on a national stage. A victory would be huge for national perception. And, as many of us know, under the current system, national perception means a lot. BYU is taking a major step up in competition, and it may take a couple of years to fully adjust. But the adjustment may happen sooner than a lot of people think.

Outside of Provo, not many people expect the Cougars to do much next year. This may play to BYU’s advantage. If the national press continues to underrate them, players on other teams can’t help but do the same. Coaches work extremely hard to make sure their teams don’t underrate anyone, but the coaches don’t have the kids 24/7.

Sooner or later, those kids are going to turn on the TV, listen to some sports radio, or pick up a newspaper. And when they do that anywhere but Utah, they don’t see a lot of respect for the Cougars. Even the compliments are thinly-veiled insults sometimes. Because when outsiders look at BYU, they see a bunch of zero, two, and three-star recruits who appear “non-athletic.”

They don’t see a bunch of four and five star recruits, and a lot of assumptions are made. What they don’t understand, though, is that BYU requires certain qualities in their athletes that transcend star rankings in high school. Faith doesn’t know recruiting stars. And recruiting evaluators don’t understand how a team at a school like BYU becomes far more than the sum of its parts solely from everyone being on the same, elevated spiritual page.

Then there is the instant equalizer: the two year mission. The kids who go on missions come back with two more years of spiritual, mental, and physical maturity. Kids mature a lot in their first two or three years of college. The extra maturity gained by kids who go on missions more than compensates for one or two stars granted by recruiting “experts.”

BYU is taking a big step up in competition. How they are able to adjust will be the main determining factor in how far up the “food chain” they can go.

Can the Cougars beat Texas? Yes. But they could lose big too. For this year, though, Texas is probably the yardstick by which any improvement will be measured, both in the eyes of the coaches and the media. It is that important.

Right now, it’s too close to call.

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Texas: The Next Frontier

There are really two revenue sports in college: football and basketball.  Every thing else is supported by these two sports.  And football is by far the most lucrative of the two sports.  In addition, it gets exposure for the University.  The more the Cougars are on national television, the more exposure the University gets.

The Cougars need a conference to get them to the NCAA in basketball.  Any conference can do that because of the way the tournament works though.  What they need in addition, though, is a way to have a chance to play for the National Championship in football, too.  They just might have figured out a way this time.

When you are in a BCS conference, you now have to compete against a lot of very good teams and one or two great ones.  Then, if you make it through undefeated, you have a conference championship game.  Usually, you have to be undefeated or only have one loss to make it to the title game.

As we have seen with Boise State and TCU the last two years, going undefeated in a non-BCS conference is not enough to make the BCS Championship game.  Call it collusion, call it competition, or call it convoluted, but there was no way BYU was ever going to make the BCS Championship game from a non-BCS conference.

Even if they went undefeated, they wouldn’t have gotten into the big game because of BCS politics.  The BCS does not want to open up their championship game to smaller conferences.  However, because of the Notre Dame factor, it is very possible for an independent to get in.  In other words, winning a non-BCS conference title is actually an obstacle to ever getting into the BCS title game.

Enter the Cougars.  Being an independent and having a contract with ESPN is the best thing that could have happened to the BYU football team, and by extension, the University.  No discussion about being independent can begin without looking at the Notre Dame strategy.  Notre Dame hasn’t been able to close the deal on the field for years now, but it hasn’t been for lack of opportunity.

For years, Notre Dame had a formula that they used nearly every year.  They played three Big Ten teams every year (Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue), three service academies (Air Force, Navy, Army), the marquee game against USC, and they would round out their schedule with teams from smaller conferences that would win a lot of games and look good for the polls and the computers, but shouldn’t be a threat to beat a truly elite team.

This worked for Notre Dame until Lou Holtz left.  Holtz left because a book called “Under the Tarnished Dome” portrayed him as someone who didn’t care about his players and charged that Holtz wouldn’t even talk to or acknowledge the existence of injured players until they were well enough to get back onto the field.  This book severely affected recruiting, and Holtz left after a couple of years.  Notre Dame then made a lot of mistakes in hiring coaches, and hasn’t been the same since.

So, what does this mean to BYU?  Everything.  Notre Dame used to be ranked in the top ten most of the time by using their scheduling strategy.  The TV contract with NBC, to whom cynics have referred as the “Notre Dame Broadcasting Company” for years, ensured that Notre Dame would be on television almost every week.  BYU now has a chance to use the same strategy as an independent.

They have a contract with ESPN.  This will give the Cougars what amounts to the second-best TV deal for independent football, losing only to that of Notre Dame.  Having most of the Cougars’ games on national TV is a huge advantage, both in recruiting and in the polls.  It ensures that all of their games can be seen by most of the country.

Now, all they have to do is schedule well and take care of business on the field.  They need to play two or three marquee games, and play the rest against decent teams, with one or two “directional” schools thrown in.

This year, the Cougars play two marquee games, Texas and TCU, the rivalry game with Utah, dangerous Oregon State, very dangerous Ole Miss, a UCF team that should be decent this year, and a bunch of “usual suspects” that they should beat.  This is the kind of schedule that gets an elite team to the title game.

The upcoming schedule is a good start, but playing Notre Dame next year is better.  Because, really, instead of playing for the championship of a conference that gets no respect from the polls or the computers, BYU is now competing against Notre Dame for the title of “best independent program with a national TV contract.”  The BYU-Notre Dame game will be the measuring stick for both schools every year they play.

Starting next year, if the Cougars can get through their independent schedule with one loss, it should be enough to land them a BCS bowl berth.  And if they make it through undefeated, it could be enough to make the title game.  If there is a playoff of at least eight teams with six BCS conference champions and two at-large teams, the Cougars will have an even better chance of winning another National Championship.

Down the road, they will need to tweak the schedule a little bit.  They need their tougher games to be against teams from major conferences and Notre Dame.  The Utah rivlary has to stay, but right now, as far as the BCS is concerned, the Cougars have all to lose and nothing to gain by playing the likes of Boise State, Hawaii, or Utah State.  But that is a subject for another day.

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