The Post-Jimmer Era Begins

Actually, the post-Jimmer era has already begun, but it has been met by resounding indifference everywhere outside of Provo.  At the time of this writing, the Cougars are 5-2, with victories over BYU-Hawaii, Longwood, Prairie View A&M, NAU, and Nevada, with losses to USU and Wisconsin.  

Really, it’s difficult to get a handle on this team so far.  They have squashed tomato cans, and lost to one rival and one elite team.  There are two things we do know: that Dave Rose is still Dave Rose and that the Cougars are going to have to lean heavily on Noah Hartsock, Brandon Davies, and Charles Abuou, with Anson Winder, Brock Zylstra rounding out the starting lineup.  There will be a lot of contributions from the bench this year, with Demarcus Harrison, Stephen Rogers, and Craig Cusick looking like the three main options.  

At first glance, the 73-56 loss to Wisconsin looks like a terrible game for the Cougars, but Wisconsin does that to a lot of ranked teams during the course of the season.  They play basketball like football, and they are one of the few teams who are consistently allowed to play what is known in the trade as “Duke Defense” without being called for fouls.  The result is that they push teams up and down the floor with impunity, play at their own, slower tempo, and make a lot of decent teams look really bad on the scoreboard.  

The Cougars learned from the Wisconsin game, and thanks to the seniors, are now stressing toughness in practice, getting ready for NAU.  Unfortunately, the practices have been so spirited that Noah Hartsock (ankle) and Stephen Rogers (knee) might not be available for the NAU game.  Chris Collingsworth isn’t ready to come back quite yet, so it could be a bit of a struggle against NAU.

Losing a player who scores as many points as Jimmer Fredette did is bad enough, but when that player was also your point guard, it is even tougher.  Jimmer scored as many points last year as many starting backcourts do.  So far, nobody has really picked up the slack yet.  The scoring is coming from Hartsock (16.8), Abouo (13.3), and Davies (12.0) right now, who are scoring 56.3 percent of the Cougars’ 74.8 points per game.  Stephen Rogers is contributing another 9.2 per game.  

As of yet, nobody in the backcourt has really emerged to do much more than run the offense and contribute the occasional bucket.  Until someone does, the Cougars will continue to be a work in progress.

Luckily, the schedule won’t be as demanding as it could.  The move to the West Coast Conference should work out well, and the Cougars can develop during the season without having to face a lot of elite teams.  They will face some solid teams, but non-conference games against Utah, Oregon, and Virginia Tech look much more demanding than most of their conference games.

If things go well, the backcourt will improve due to more experience, and somebody will emerge as a consistent, double-figure scorer.  Brock Zylstra is the best bet, but so far, he has failed to match his 17.3 point average from the trip to Greece.  In the meantime, anyone watching tape of last year’s Cougars will now be defending a post-oriented team instead of one that launched up (and made) mostly outside shots.  

Football Update – No Vacation in Hawaii

Coach Mendenhall is making sure the Cougars don’t fall victim to “island paralysis syndrome.”  This is what happens to many teams who go to Hawaii, decide they are on vacation, and look like it when they step on the field at Aloha Stadium.  The Cougars get Thursday to enjoy themselves, but will work hard on Friday, and be fully ready for the game on Saturday.  

It is important that the Cougars keep their focus and bring home a ninth win on Saturday.  There are still a lot of conference invitations yet to go out, and the Cougars need to make themselves look as attractive as possible, no matter how the conference realignments work out in the end.  

If there are superconferences with a playoff to determine a true National Champion, the Cougars need to be attractive enough to get an invitation to one of them.  On the other hand, if the BCS continues on its present route, the Cougars need to continue to look good on a yearly basis for the pollsters.

In a perfect world, the polls and the computers would always get it right.  The best teams would end up at the top, and every team would to to the bowl it deserves.  College football, though, is far from perfect.  At the top, where the decisions are made, it is driven solely by money, and the most attractive teams get the most attractive post-season games.

In a way, the rankings are a lot like the world golf rankings, but without the points.  Even though every year is a new year and every team is a new team due to the fact that students graduate, teams are often judged on their past as well as their present.  

So far, 2011 has been a good first year as an independent for the Cougars.  Other than the Utah debacle, they have stayed in every game, and the latter part of the year has been entertaining for the most part.  Even the TCU game wasn’t the blowout many in the national media expected.   

It is essential that the Cougars finish strong.  A victory over Hawaii would put the Cougars at 9-3, setting them up for a possible 10-win season.  In the eyes of the national media, the tenth win would be huge.  It gives reporters a double-digit number to look at when assessing the team’s value.  

Bronco Mendenhall knows this.  The players know it.  And they know that a tenth win is not possible if they don’t take care of business and get their ninth win on Saturday night.  

We are looking for a great performance.  There may be a few underthrown balls in the low altitude and heavy air at the beginning, but Jake Heaps should adjust quite well after a couple of drives, and the Cougars should take care of business on the Island for their ninth win.

How Does the Move to the WCC Affect the Cougars’ Basketball Team?

For this year, expect a slight downward trend.  With the exception of maybe Duke, Kentucky, or a few other basketball factories, there isn’t a team in the country that could lose Jimmer Fredette and not feel it on the court the following year.  We will preview BYU in greater depth later, but for today, we would like to take a look at the WCC and see what the new competition looks like.  We will do so in order of their finish in the 2010-11 conference standings.

Saint Mary’s Gaels

St Mary’s may be the best team you never heard of.  Coach Randy Bennett is an “up and comer,” mentioned for both the Utah and Missouri jobs when they opened up this year.  He was selected as an assistant for the US 19-under team currently playing in the FIBA U19 World Championship in Latvia.

For 2011, they finished 25-9 overall and 11-3 in the WCC, with four players in double figures.  Their best player, sort of their “Jimmer lite,” was Mickey McConnell, and he led the team with  16.4 points and 6.1 assists per game.  McConnell graduated this year, and will be difficult to replace.  We project a split with this team.

Gonzaga Zags

Actually, they are the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but they are more commonly referred to as the Zags.  This is the team that most opponents “love to hate.”  There may be teams that have gotten more publicity for less performance, but we can’t really think of any right now.  When the Cougars play the Zags on ESPN, some of you may notice that the announcers think there is only one team on the floor.  A hint: it won’t be the Cougars.

As for their on-court performance, you may remember them as the team the Cougars beat 89-67 in the NCAA Tournament to end their season.

You may also remember that many picked Gonzaga to win this game by “neutralizing Jimmer Fredette.”  They finished 25-10 and 11-3, and are probably glad Jimmer is gone.

The biggest obstacle for BYU, though, is that Gonzaga lost only one player.  That player was Steven Gray, who averaged 14.8 points and 3.9 assists.  They return everyone else, including a couple of 7-footers in Robert Sacre, who was their bright spot in the loss to BYU, and Kelly Olnyk.

This is by far the scariest team in the conference this year, and Rivals has them ranked at 17 in their preseason projections.

Gonzaga is the only team in the conference with the potential to sweep the Cougars, and then pick up the rare trifecta in the conference tournament.  Also, they will have revenge on their minds for the tournament game.  Instant rivalry game, anyone?

University of San Francisco Dons

The Dons finished 19-15 and 10-4 last year.  The bad news for USF is that they graduated their biggest player, 6-10 center Moustapha Diarra, and have one 6-9 player on their roster as their tallest player.  The good news is that Diarra didn’t score in double figures, was a mediocre rebounder, and the only thing he led the team in was blocks with 0.9 per game.  This is a decent team, but not a great one.  This could be a split or the Cougars could sweep.

Santa Clara Broncos

The Broncos finished 24-14 and 8-6.  They graduate three seniors, but the largest contributor only averaged 5.5 points per game.  They return senior guard Kevin Foster, who averaged 20.2 points per game, and their next five top scorers.  This could be a very good team.  This could be a split or the Broncos could sweep.

Portland Pilots

The Pilots finished 20-12 and 7-7, but they are losing three starters and four players overall to graduation.  The top three graduating contributors are 6-10, 6-9, and 6-8.  This looks like a BYU sweep.

Pepperdine Waves

The Waves finished 12-21 and 5-9.  They lose two starters who combined for 20.2 points.  Another BYU sweep.

Loyola Marymount Lions

They finished 11-21 and 2-12.  It doesn’t matter who is coming back.  BYU sweep.

San Diego Toreros

They finished 6-24 and 2-12.  Not only will BYU sweep, but they will get to spend a nice, warm winter day in San Diego, too.

The New Kids on the Block

We are projecting an 11-5 record for the Cougars’ first season in the WCC.  Replacing Jimmer Fredette is going to be difficult.

Four star recruit Damarcus Harrison is a nice shooting guard, and at 6-4, should be able to get his shots off as a freshman.  But nobody can expect him to replace Jimmer, nor should they.  Jackson Emery is lost to graduation, too, and with him his 12.9 points.  That means the Cougars lost their two leading scorers for a total of 41.4 points a game.  Dave Rose is a very good coach, and the Cougars are a very mature team, but the Cougars have a very difficult job to do in the coming season.

The transfer of 6-7 Josh Sharp from Utah to BYU after a redshirt year and a two-year mission should help, and the Cougars are bringing back a lot of solid but not flashy players.  Hopefully, Brandon Davies takes care of business and gets back on the roster.  Noah Hartsock shows the ability to step up and pick up some of the scoring slack.  Charles Abouo hit a few nice shots in the tournament, and the Collingsworth brothers are good for some inside banging, no matter which one is on the floor.

It should be a fun year waiting to see who will emerge as the new person the team turns to in “crunch time.”  Our guess is that there won’t be a dominant player on the team this year, but that it will be one of “those” teams that is difficult to defend against because there are so many players on the floor who can put the ball in the net.

Congratulations: Jimmer is on his Way to Sacramento

When the Kings traded down to ten, three spots ahead of the Jazz, it didn’t look good for Jimmer to remain in Utah for the next few years.  Then, when the Jazz went large with Enes Kanter at number three, there was a glimmer of hope, and maybe a chance that the Jazz knew something that the rest of the world didn’t yet.

Jimmer Fredette is Looking Better Every Day

Going into the draft, Jimmer Fredette heard a lot of negative things about his game.  The main criticisms were that he isn’t athletic enough to finish down low in the NBA, and that he can’t play NBA defense.  His height was also brought into question, and one very popular scouting service rated him as having athletic ability that is “average at best” and possessing “poor lateral quickness.”

Goodbye, Jimmer. Hello, Jimmer?

The NCAA Tournament didn’t end well, but it really only does for one team in the entire country.  While Jimmer and his Cougars lost in the Sweet Sixteen, a picture of a bruised, bandaged, and fatigued, but unbowed Fredette walking off the court may be the most iconic image of the tourmanent.

The big question is, where does Jimmer Fredette go from here?  Will he be a boom or a bust in the NBA?  How will his talent translate to the next level?  Will the Jazz draft him?  If not, where will he go?  Let’s take a look at these questions.

Will Jimmer Fredette be a boom or a bust in the NBA?

Some “experts” don’t think he has much of a chance in the NBA.  Here’s what those “experts” think:

Strengths:

Jimmer Fredette is a great shooter.  His range is more than sufficient for the NBA 3-point line, but he can also hit midrange jumpers and can penetrate the lane.  He can not only spot up and shoot off the dribble, but he can also hit shots that most players are told not to take.

Also, he is a natural leader.  He is a player who is equally adept at putting the entire game on his shoulders or involving his teammates, depending on what is working and what is needed.

In addition, Fredette is a very good passer.  He can pass well enough to be a point guard in the NBA, and can use the threat of his shot to open up other players for shots.

Weaknesses:

The main concern at the next level is Jimmer’s defense.  If he stayed and watched Butler beat Florida in the Elite Eight game, he would have noticed how everyone on Butler moved their feet on defense.  This is something that Jimmer needs to do more.  He is seen as having slow feet, and as a potential liability on defense.  He will have to improve in this department if he wants to start in the NBA.

His turnover rate is too high.  His adjusted turnover rate was 23rd highest in the NCAA, and his assist to turnover ratio was only 1.22.  These will need to improve, too.

Overall prospects:

According to the gurus, Jimmer Fredette is a mid to late-first rounder who will have to land on the right team.  He can be a solid player, but won’t dominate as he did in college.  In other words, they see him as a possible bust with an upside of being a solid player but not a star.

How will Jimmer’s talent translate to the next level?

To fully answer this question, we must first address the “elephant in the room.”  What is the elephant in the room?  Jimmer Fredette has different ethnicity than the stereotypical basketball player.  It’s unsettling that stereotypes still exist today, but the bottom line here is that even scouts who do this for a living fall prey to the “black men are natural athletes, white men can’t jump” mentality.

There’s really no way to sugarcoat this: recruiting gurus, who should know better, are using the “slow, white guy” stereotype in their assessment of Jimmer Fredette.  It’s subtle, and I’m not saying by any stretch of the imagination that it is intentional, but it is still there.  People in Utah are used to this because they saw John Stockton play possibly the best basketball in the country night after night, but never get full credit for just how good he was.

So, let’s pretend for a moment that everybody on the court is gray.  They are all generic players, with no cultural or racial differences: they are just players.  I don’t need to do this exercise myself, because I see all players as “cut from the same cloth,” but I will pretend.

When I see them as all gray, and I look at Fredette, I see a player who has the tools to make it at the next level.  I see a player who can shoot, pass, and drive.  I see a player who has the mental toughness to succeed at any level.  Do I see a player who isn’t a finished product yet?  Of course.  I see him as a player who needs to learn to move his feet on defense.  But do I see him as unable to learn to move his feet better?  No.

Will the Jazz draft Jimmer Fredette?

I think the Jazz will take Fredette if they get the chance to.  But there is a problem with that.  Every year we see a high-scoring player raked over the coals by scouting services, only to get taken as a high pick.  The Cavs have two lottery as do the Jazz.  Assuming that neither the Cavs’  nor the Jazz’ wins one of the top three slots,  the Cavs’ second pick will be before the Jazz second pick.  Will the Jazz use their top pick for Jimmer?

The Cavs are looking for star power.  They desperately need a “feel-good” pick to replace Lebron James.  Looking at the board for this year, there really isn’t anyone who is a guaranteed game-changer, even at #1.  Cavs’ owner Dan Gilbert is establishing a reputation as a very rich and very loose cannon who isn’t afraid to take a chance.

What does this mean?  I think the Jazz would take Jimmer Fredette in a heartbeat.  They know that Jimmer can play, and they know it would be great for the franchise to take a star who happened to play at BYU.

Goodbye or Hello?

“With the eighth selection in the 2011 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers take Jimmer Fredette.”

Still a Very Good Season

Florida played their best game of the year

BYU lost to the Florida Gators for a few reasons.  First of all, the Gators played their best game of the year.  They started the game hot, and, sadly, they finished the game hot, going 5 of 7 from the field in overtime.  Four of their players scored between 16 and 19 points.  The balance was too much for the Cougars.

Vernon Macklin was hot inside, while Chandler Parsons looked like the Mr Basketball he was in high school.  Alex Tyus played the best game he played in his four years at Florida.  Guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker, while they missed a lot of shots, still made just enough to keep BYU from shading inside.

Florida made sure they didn’t leave anything on the floor against the Cougars.  This was evidenced by their terrible performance two nights later against Butler.  They expended so much energy against BYU that they had nothing left for Butler.  For the Cougars, it was being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The Cougars ran out of gas

This happened for a few reasons.  First of all, Jimmer Fredette was hurt and had an off-night.  Fredette, like most great shooters, uses his legs to shoot.  When one calf is hurt, as his was, it throws everything off.  It’s harder to get balanced force coming from both sides of the body.  And once you miss a few shots, you spend the rest of the night trying to compensate.  Often, as on Thursday, the right adjustment never kicks in.

Secondly, we all knew that the suspension of Brandon Davies was going to hurt the Cougars eventually.  “Eventually” happened on Thursday night.  BYU missed his height underneath, and he may have been able to put the clamps on Alex Tyus.

Also, as we thought may happen, his absence affected team depth.  Florida had too many athletes and too many chiseled bodies to throw in and out of this game.  They wore BYU down and BYU didn’t have enough energy to finish the game when they needed to.

Officiating played a huge role in this game

First and foremost, the officiating was fair.  They called it the same way for both teams on both ends of the court.  The problem for the Cougars was that they called it like Stanley Cup Hockey.  When you are the team that is prone to attrition while the other team has plenty of depth, the last thing you want to see is an officiating crew that “lets them play.”

It’s nothing against the officials; they did a fine job.  It was simply unfortunate “luck of the draw” that the Cougars played an extremely physical game against the worst possible opponent at the worst possible time.

“Bruised and battered” is not how you want your star basketball player described at the end of the game, but Jimmer Fredette sustained contact on pretty much every play.  Everyone across the country has seen the “stock” picture of Fredette with the bandage on his chin.  Once again, it was called the same for both teams, but it simply wore out the injured Fredette.

What now?

This senior-laden team was the best edition of the Cougars in history, and Coach Rose is going to have to find some replacements pretty fast, that is, if the school manages to keep him from the greedy hands of bigger-budget universities.  Jimmer Fredette, Jackson Emery, and Logan Magnusson have played their last games in a Cougar uniform, and Brandon Davies may or may not make it back.

We know Noah Hartsock, Charles Abouo, Kyle Collinsworth, and Stephen Rogers can play, but who is going to step up and be the go-to guy in Jimmer’s absence?  There is a lot of height returning from missions the next two years, but the Cougars need to find a guard, wing forward, or both who can fill the void left by the graduation of Fredette and Emery.

The move to the WCC is probably coming at the right time.  Gonzaga will  be looking for revenge, and the Cougars will probably be undermanned next season.  St Mary’s is showing signs of being a perennial tournament contender, but there are a lot of teams in the WCC that the Cougars should be able to beat.

Looking back

It was definitely a very good year.  I am tempted to call it great, but they needed a Final Four berth to qualify for greatness.

Most of all, though, BYU exhibited class all year.  A lesser man than Jimmer Fredette would have become arrogant over all of the attention he received.  A lesser school than BYU would have ignored Brandon Davies’ transgressions until the tournament was over.  And a lesser coach than Dave Rose would have played “Hack-a-Mack” on Vernon Macklin in the last three minutes of the Florida game.

But Fredette remained humble.  And BYU honored their Honor Code.  And Dave Rose refused to throw a 20-something kid under the bus to win a basketball game.

When you have that much class, the losses don’t bother you for long.

Maybe it was a great year, after all.

BYU vs Gonzaga Highlights

BYU Blasts Past Wofford And Gonzaga

BYU In The Sweet 16

 

What a great weekend! BYU did what they had to do this weekend.  They got the requisite amount of points from Jimmer Fredette, but they also got key contributions from the rest of the team.  This is very important to moving forward from the emotional distress caused by the national media coverage of honor code violations.

The Wofford game on Thursday wasn’t much of a yardstick.  The Cougars got a lot of contributions from players other than Fredette, but this was Wofford they were playing.  Yes, Charles Abouo, Noah Hartsock, and Logan Magnusson scored in double figures, notching ten points each.  Yes, Kyle Collinsworth nabbed eleven rebounds.

But you couldn’t help feeling that this was just a superior team taking care of business against a plucky but outclassed team that wouldn’t have finished over .500 in the MWC.

The game against Gonzaga, though, was a major eye-opener.  For the Cougars to win against top-notch competition, it is going to have to go like it did Saturday.  Here is the scenario:

Jimmer Fredette hits his first few shots.  The other team keys on him, and this opens up the floor for everyone else.  And everyone else comes through.  Then the floor is opened back up for Fredette, who administers the finishing touches.

This is how it has to happen, and this is how it happened in Saturday.  In a way, it was what happened against Wofford, but against much better competition.

Once again, three other players scored in double figures.  Noah Hartsock scored thirteen, and demoralized Gonzaga with three for three shooting from beyond the three-point line.  Jackson Emery scored sixteen points, and every one he scored seemed to be crucial.  Stephen Rogers came off the bench to score ten.  And Kyle Collingsworth picked up seven rebounds to go with six points.

Most of all, Jimmer Fredette only took 23 shots to score 29 points and added five free throws for a total of 34.  Fredette scored 1.26 points for every shot from the field.  When he is over a point per shot, BYU is usually going to win.

Moving on…

 

Now, the Cougars go to New Orleans to play Florida.  If they beat Florida, they get the winner of Butler vs Wisconsin.  Florida is a winnable game, but it will be no cakewalk.  The Gators may be far-removed from their two consecutive National Championships, but their team is full of players who were once elite recruits and has finally found its own identity.

The Gators who won the National Championship had a core that was tall and athletic.  They turned out to be so talented that they almost made winning look easy.  The current Gators are built in the mold of head coach Billy Donovan.  They don’t have a roster full of first round NBA draft picks, but they are a very gutty, scrappy team.  They play with passion and a lot of “basketball sense.”  The Cougars can win this game, but they are going to have to play as well as they did against Gonzaga on Saturday.  Anything less will result in an early exit.

If they beat Florida, cheer for Butler to beat Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is a matchup nightmare for BYU, as Pitt would have been.  They are too big and strong inside, and would exploit the lighter and smaller Cougars.  They are also a very patient team that runs a lot of clock on offense, plays stifling defense, and can easily disrupt the tempo of a team that relies on outside shooting.

Wisconsin wins ugly, but they win.  And their style of game fits NCAA Tournament play extremely well.  Butler, on the other hand, is a matchup that the Cougars can win.  They don’t do anything great, but do a lot well.  They are a well-balanced team, but they don’t present the almost-insurmountable matchup problem that Wisconsin would.

 

What BYU Must Do Against Florida

 

The Florida game is going to have to be almost a carbon copy of the Gonzaga game for the Cougars to win.  Fredette will need to hit a few early and hope that Florida doubles him or plays a zone that focuses on him.  This will open up the floor for other players.

Then, Hartsock will have to hit from outside and Emery will have to slash his way to the basket once the court is opened up. Kyle Collinsworth will also have to continue to rebound as well as he has, and another great set of contributions from the bench players would be a major bonus.

Fredette will once again have to average more than one point per shot.  He should get to the line against Florida, who like to play pretty tight on defense, but the points per shot statistic will be more important than his total number of points.

 

Will BYU’s Depth affect their Performance this week?

 

So far, Kyle Collinsworth has played admirably in place of Brandon Davies.  However, there isn’t anyone to fill his slot on the bench as well as he did.  This could be a problem, but may not.  So far, the Cougars have done just fine.

If this was a tournament like most conference tournaments, where you play three or four games in a row with no rest days, the effect of Davies’ suspension on team depth could be a major detriment, as it may have been in the MWC tournament.  It is very possible that BYU simply “ran out of gas” against SDSU while playing their third game in three days.

In the NCAA Tournament, though, you play two games a week with a day’s rest in between.  There is plenty of time to rest and heal nagging injuries.  Also, everyone is running on adrenaline in both games, and fatigue doesn’t really seem to factor in as much as it would in conference tournaments.

 

A Quick Prediction…

 

The Cougars will beat Florida in New Orleans on a last-second shot by, who else, Jimmer Fredette.  If Butler beats Wisconsin, BYU will be able to get by them and into the Final Four.  If they have to play Wisconsin, though, it will probably be a long flight back to Provo.

Random Thoughts From A Long Weekend

BYU vs SDSU Basketball Highlight

Last updated by Jim at July 29, 2011.

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