Moving Along Nicely in the Post-Jimmer Era

When we last discussed the basketball team, there were a lot more questions than answers.  Let’s take a look at some of those questions.

Who is going to take over for Jimmer Fredette?

The obvious answer is that nobody on the team is another Jimmer Fredette.  Players of his caliber only come along once or twice in most teams’ histories.  When you take a deeper look, though, the answer is that everybody has to take over.  Everybody has to elevate their games, and a lot of teamwork is required. 

The Cougars have done a great job so far.  Four players are averaging double figures, and Brock Zylstra is chipping in with 9 ppg, with Stephen Rogers contributing 7.7 ppg.  We will have more to say about those in double figures later in this post.

I guess the best way to answer this question is that teamwork and defense are going to take over for Jimmer Fredette.  That is absolutely not a knock on last year’s team, either.  When you have a talent like Fredette, you have to let him shine.  Conversely, when a talent like Fredette leaves, it’s time for everybody to elevate their games and pick up the slack.  In basketball, as in football, the best way to do this is to pick it up on the defensive end. 

Should BYU even bother to show up this year?

Not if they had listened to the national press.  I doubt that many would have predicted the Cougars to even go .500 this year.  I wonder that those who predicted gloom and doom for the Cougars think now?  They aren’t getting much national TV time or publicity at this point, but the Cougar are 17-5 overall, and 6-2 in conference play.  In other words, the Cougars are playing a lot better than most national writers predicted them to, and the total collapse predicted by many just hasn’t happened.

We’ve all seen the pattern over and over.  For whatever reason, the Cougars are usually the last team to get any respect from the national press.  The football contract with ESPN has helped matters greatly, but the Cougars are still seen as an afterthought when upper-echelon teams are being discussed.  Only the stratospheric play of Jimmer Fredette got the Cougars any respect at all last year. 

Even so, most writers saw the Cougars as a one-man team, and at least one national sports personality found a way to predict them losing every game in the tournament before someone was finally right.  This year, Jerry Palm, who usually does a very good job at CBS, still has the Cougars as one of his last four teams to make it into the tournament. 

Palm usually gets a lot of his predictions right, especially toward the end of the season.  This is bothersome, because he apparently is brilliant at figuring out all of the politics that go into choosing the field.  Is a 17-5 BYU team really only deserving of a play-in game?  In the preseason coaches’ poll, the Cougars got exactly one vote as a top 25 team.  Even at 17-5, they only have one vote in this week’s poll. 

So, who has really stepped it up this season?

Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have been the top scorers this year, and both have contributed a lot of leadership, besides their points.  Hartsock not only scored twenty against Pepperdine, but blocked three shots.  Along the way, he became the 43^rd player in Cougar history to score over 1,000 points.  In the loss to Loyola-Marymount, Hartsock had a career-high 28 points. 

Davies could have sulked after last year.  He could have transferred.  He could have come in with a bad attitude.  Instead, he has worked his tail off.  Davies scored 29 against Pepperdine, with 15-18 shooting from the free throw line, and contributed two blocks. 

From the outside, Matt Carlino, Charles Abouo are both shooting .444, and have combined for 41 percent from outside of the three-point line.   Fifth starter Zylstra and sixth man Rogers have combined to shoot .483, and .409 from three-point range. 

As we alluded to at the beginning, defense is where the Cougars have really shined this year.  While we all like to see scoring, the other half of the game is to not let the opponent score.  The Cougars have allowed only 65.1 points per game this year, while scoring 80. 

CBS, in whatever metric they use, has the Cougars as the number twelve team in the country in total defense.  While they are ranked around 100 in points allowed, this doesn’t take a lot of things into consideration, such as competition or the pace of the game in your part of the country. 

We like the scoring margin stat, in which the Cougars are 14^th in the country right now with a 14.9 point margin.  Conference leader St Mary’s, who are having a monster season so far, are in sixth place with a 16.9 margin.  While the Cougars are in third place in the WCC right now, we see them as the second-best team in the league.  A victory over St Mary’s in the WCC tournament, though, could change everything. 

And this brings us to our next topic:

So, where is this team headed?

The next three games should tell a lot.  Virginia Tech is first.  On paper, they look OK, with a 12-7 record, but they have pretty much lost to everyone they’ve played who is any good, and fattened their record with tomato cans.  They play in the ACC, which is one of the two toughest conferences in college basketball, but they are beatable.  If the Cougars beat VT, it will certainly help the respect level in the national press.

The next two conference games, though, will tell a lot.  It is essential that the Cougars at least win one of the next two home games against St Mary’s and Gonzaga.  If they win both, it proves that the Cougars are as good as anyone in the league.  If they lose both, they are going to have to work hard to get into the NCAA draw.  

The BCS Scam-pionship and How It Affects the Cougars

The BCS “Championship” game was a joke.  It was a dull, boring game, played between the first and second-place finishers in the same division.  Everybody knows that it is much more difficult to beat a team twice than it is to beat it once.  In rematches, if the two teams are remotely equal, the team that lost the first game almost always wins the second game.  That is exactly what happened: ho-hum.

The BCS likes to say that, under the current system, “every game counts.”  This is just a flat-out lie on many levels.  First and foremost, how can anyone say with a straight fact that LSU’s victory over Alabama in the regular season “counted” for anything? 

Secondly, it has become obvious that, after one loss, any game played by any team not in the SEC doesn’t “count” for anything.  Ultimately, Oklahoma State’s 12 wins didn’t “count” for anything.  Neither did Stanford’s 11 wins in the regular season.  Oregon’s season was basically over after the first game, when it lost to LSU. 

The current system is a travesty.  Why is the NCAA’s largest revenue sport still the only one in which a true champion is not determined on the field of play?  The answer, plain and simple, is that it is all about the money, but not in the way one would think. 

The BCS in general, and the bowls in particular, wield an incredible amount of power over the NCAA.  Worse yet, they allow this voluntarily.  Human nature dictates that there must be something in it for the school presidents and athletic directors who continue to vote for this system, because people almost always act in their own self-interest.  To understand this fully, a little bit of background is necessary. 

The “Granddaddy of them All,” the Rose Bowl, was originally created in 1902 to promote tourism in Pasadena.  Soon, other cities followed suit, and by 1937, there were five major bowl games: the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Cotton Bowl Classic, Orange Bowl, and Sun Bowl.  These games were considered to be exhibitions, and had no bearing on who was called the National Champion, as all polls were done shortly after the season had ended. 

Now, there are so many bowls that 6-6 teams are being allowed to play, and 6-7 UCLA was even granted a waiver to play in a bowl this year.  The BCS was created in 1988, ostensibly to create the five “best” bowl matchups, including the “BCS Championship Game.” 

All it has done, though, is to create a “system” that is almost exactly like the old bowl system, but with two teams playing for a paper “championship” while other worthy teams are excluded.  Most teams don’t complain most years, because a major bowl with a payout in the $10 million range is a great “consolation prize.”

Really, though, it isn’t a prize anymore.  A bowl game used to be an exhibition game that would reward the student-athlete for a great year.  While the athletes are still rewarded with a week of activities and a great “swag bag” of gifts like iPods and popular video game systems, it is really nothing more than another road game, another week of hard work, and another opportunity to get injured. 

In other words, bowl games are now exactly what those who argue against a playoff cite as their main reason for arguing against a playoff: more wear and tear on the “student-athlete.”  With the new schedule that plays the “championship game” a full week after the New Year’s Day bowls, and lesser bowls playing the week in between, the other argument that a playoff would take too long is laughable.

So, why do the presidents keep voting against a playoff and refusing to even discuss it most years?  It is because the presidents get too many perks from the bowls.  Basically, too many bowls are a money-laundering operation where money is funneled from the general funds of the athletic departments and turned into vacations for the presidents, athletic directors, various trustees and school officials, and their families. 

Schools are required to “buy” amounts of tickets that they can’t possibly sell, and the difference is “made up” by the school purchasing the unsold tickets themselves.  This money is used to entertain presidents and AD’s, and to buy numerous gifts for decision-makers.  The Fiesta Bowl Scandal of 2011 is laughable, in that those who were fired were only doing what nearly every other major bowl is doing in a de facto sense: bribing school officials. 

Consequently, even though the NCAA is leaving a ton of money on the table by not having a true playoff, most bowl officials believe that a true playoff would diminish the importance of the bowls.  Bowl officials desperately want to retain their power, and don’t hesitate to use the relationships they have built with presidents and AD’s over the years to their advantage.

So, how does this affect the Cougars?  First of all, it is obvious that they need to stay right where they are.  If the Cougars want to play for the “National Championship,” they will have to run the table, but it is possible in a great year.  The trick is to schedule just enough games against high-quality competition to obtain high rankings, but not so many that they risk being knocked out of the running.

Until the system is changed, it just doesn’t make sense for the Cougars to join a conference.  At this point, they have one main competitor: Notre Dame.  If the Cougars are the best of the independent teams, they will probably get a slot in a BCS bowl.  Instead of competing against 10-14 teams for the honor, it is much better leverage to compete against a few independents. 

The Cougars have enough natural rivalries to fill out an entertaining schedule, and enough TV coverage to get ranked highly if they win between 11 or 12 games.   As we guessed last spring, it will take at least 10 wins to get into a BCS bowl, and probably 11.  Until the system changes, it just makes more sense to remain independent. 

If there is ever a playoff consisting of conference champions only, then the Cougars will be forced to join a conference.  In the meantime, though, they are in the best possible situation.  They can continue to grow the BYU brand, take care of business on the field, and set their sights squarely on overtaking Notre Dame as the top independent football program in the country.

Armed Forces Bowl Highlights

Cougars win Third Straight Bowl Game

In August, we correctly guessed that anything less than ten regular season wins would keep the Cougars from a BCS bid and put them in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces bowl. Even though the bowl was in Fort Worth, the finish was more worthy of their early 1980’s appearances in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The Cougars came from behind twice, and would finally win the game in the last minute on a play for the ages.

As has been their habit against good teams, the Cougars started slow. Tulsa started their first drive on their own 24, and Brandon Ogletree was whistled for a facemask penalty, giving the Golden Hurricane the ball on their own 39. The Cougars then allowed Tulsa to drive down the field 61 yards for a touchdown in a little over six minutes. Tulsa would net 19 yards on the ground and 42 in the air. This would turn out to be one more rushing yard than Tulsa got for the rest of the game combined.

As we often see in bowl games against reasonably well-matched teams, most of the game was a defensive struggle. The Cougars scored on a 35 yard field goal by Justin Sorenson with seventeen seconds left in the first quarter to close the margin to 7-3 for Tulsa. On Tulsa’s second offensive drive in the second quarter, the defense went to sleep for four plays, and it would cost them an 86-yard drive for a touchdown that took only 1:16 off of the clock. A seven-yard run was followed by passes of 50, 14, and 14 yards to put Tulsa ahead 14-3.

At the end of the first half, special teams came up big, as David Foote recovered a Justin Sorenson punt that was fumbled by JD Ratliff at the Tulsa 17. If there’s one thing the Cougars have proven this year, it’s that they are able to take advantage of opportunities caused by turnovers. Riley Nelson did what great QB’s and teams do, throwing a 17-yard pass to Cody Hoffman on the first play for a touchdown to bring the Cougars to within 14-10 with twelve seconds left in the first half. On the play, which will probably be in a lot of highlight reels, Matt Reynolds lost his helmet, but then flattened Tulsa DE Cory Dorris, giving Nelson time to make what turned out to be a crucial throw.

In the second half, though, it was more defense. Finally, with 1:41 left in the third quarter, Nelson hit Hoffman with another TD pass, this time for 31 yards, to put the Cougars on top, 17-14. With 10:42 left in the fourth quarter, though, the defense would once again allow a big play for Tulsa, as they took advantage of a short field. They completed a 58-yard drive with a 30-yard TD pass, and would go on top, 21-17.

After failed drives by both teams, the Cougars would get the ball back at the Tulsa 48 with 4:18 and the season on the line. Riley Nelson will never be confused with a classic, drop-back, rifle-armed NFL quarterback, but he is one of the most competitive and fearless quarterbacks in the game. The last drive showed almost everything that is great about the Cougars in four minutes and seven seconds. After three plays for one yard, it was fourth and nine on the Tulsa 47-yard line. Failing to find an open receiver, Riley Nelson tucked the ball and ran 14 yards for a first down.

The Cougars then went to the running game with Bryan Kariya and JJ DiLuigi getting the ball to the Tulsa 13-yard line, and Riley Nelson getting the ball to the eight. Nelson would complete a pass to Marcus Mathews at the two. Then came the play that had the football world paying attention to the Cougars. BYU had no time outs left, and Nelson was yelling the signal to “clock” the ball. As the ball was snapped, everyone on the team did what they would normally do in a “clock” situation.

Everyone, that is, but Riley Nelson and Cody Hoffman. Nelson threw the ball to Hoffman on the right side of the end zone for a touchdown with eleven seconds left on the clock. A Justin Sorenson extra point, and subsequent kickoff into the end zone for a touchback would leave Tulsa with eleven seconds to go eighty yards. Tulsa would lateral the ball twice and fumble it once before Travis Uale would cover the ball up for the victory.

Game balls go to Riley Nelson, Cody Hoffman, and Matt Reynolds on offense. On defense, Kyle Van Noy had another solid game, with nine solo tackles, two sacks, and one QB hurry. David Foote gets the special teams game ball for his fumble recovery, and Justin Sorenson gets one for a very consistent game and for not giving Tulsa a chance to win the game on his kickoff.

In winning the Armed Forces Bowl, the Cougars won three bowl games in a row for the first time in their history. They also wrapped up their fifth 10-win season in the last six years, which they have only done once before, from 1980-1985. At the beginning of the season, we knew the Cougars had a chance of having a special season, but that it would take a few bounces going the right way for it to happen. All in all, though, 2011 turned out to be a very good year for BYU.

On the good side, BYU has found its next great quarterback. Once again, Riley Nelson probably won’t make it to the NFL, but he is the consummate team player, and one of the toughest quarterbacks in college. Most of all, Riley Nelson is a leader. Greatness is often measured in stats. With Riley Nelson, though, it has to be “measured” by the intangibles.

To be a great quarterback, you have to win games. Also, your team has to follow you. Riley Nelson has a very rare talent. He is able to make the team play better when he is in the game. Like a great point guard in basketball, Nelson’s strength is his ability to manage the team and get the job done, regardless of individual stats or glory.

When Nelson lost his job to Jake Heaps, a lesser man would have pouted and complained about “losing his starting job due to injury.” Riley Nelson didn’t do that, though. Instead, he “manned up,” contributed to the team in any way he could, and made sure he would be prepared for his next opportunity. When Nelson finally got the opportunity, he took full advantage of it, and the Cougars showed their respect by the way they responded with Nelson behind center. By the time it was all over, the Cougars had another ten-win season.

Thank you, Riley Nelson, for being such a great leader this season. The Cougars are in good hands for 2012.