Know Your Opponent: University of Central Florida

The University of Central Florida is about as opposite BYU as is possible.  It is an urban school located in Orlando, Florida.  The terrain is flat, the school is surrounded by a densely populated city and suburbs, and the school is very close to sea level.  Also, it is hot: very hot.  They will be coming into Provo from weather that is just starting to move from the low 90′s to the high 80′s.  A crisp September afternoon might make a difference in this game, if needed.  

UCF is one of “those” schools that has threatened to crash the party, but never quite made it all the way through the door.  It is coming off of a 11-3 record last year (including the bowl game), but many would say it isn’t as great a season as it would appear.  They play in Conference USA, which, to be blunt, is a mish-mash of schools nobody else wanted.  This works out well, because their team is mostly instate players who didn’t get offers from top-ranked schools.  

Their wins were mostly over conference opponents, and their three losses were to NC State, Kansas State, and conference foe Southern Mississippi.  Their “signature win” was a Liberty Bowl victory over Georgia, whose year was so bad that their coach is on the “hot seat” this year.

They are coached by George O’Leary.  O’Leary compiled a 52-33 record at Georgia Tech, but they would go on probation when it was found in a 2000 investigation that they used ineligible players while O’Leary was their coach. O’Leary was not blamed, and got hired at Notre Dame in 2001.  It was found that he had lied about a degree and about having been a varsity player on his resume, and he was “unhired” before he had a chance to get started.

Colleges avoided him like the plague, and he was an assistant with the Minnesota Vikings in 2002 and 2003, and he was hired at UCF in 2004.  UCF was in a state of utter disarray, and were happy to take a chance on a coach who had won a title in the ACC.  They went 0-11 in his first year, and would finish 8-5 the next season with a loss in the CUSA Championship game and a loss to Tulsa in the Hawaii Bowl.  

Since then, they have been a middle to top CUSA team, making three bowls in five seasons, including the last two.  Last year, they finished ranked 20th in the coaches’ poll and 21st in the writers’ poll.  They see 2010 as a breakthrough season, and expect to be even better this year.  Almost everybody else disagrees.

UCF is taking some heat for keeping O’Leary after losing $10 million to the family of Ereck Plancher, who collapsed and died in spring practice in 2008.  The trial probably opened a lot of old emotional wounds among the team. O’Leary, right or wrong, is seen by many as the poster child for overdriven coaches.  We think the distraction won’t hurt, but it certainly can’t help, either.  

UCF returns only 10 starters from last year.  UCF’s “company line” is that they are very deep and losing 14 starters (they return their kicker but lost their punter) won’t hurt them.  Sorry, (formerly ‘Golden’) Knights, but it doesn’t work that way.  Even Alabama, the kings of oversigning, suffer when they lose fourteen starters.  The only team we have ever seen be able to consistently reload instead of rebuilding is USC.  UCF is about to be reminded that they are not, on their best day, USC.  

On the bright side for UCF, they return eight position players on offense. They lost one wide receiver and two tackles.  On the strong side, it won’t matter because they return their tight end.  But on the weak side, look for the Cougars to get a very strong pass rush from the edge, whether it is from the end or the outside linebacker.  

In 2010, UCF completed 191 of 296 for 64.5 percent passing the ball for 2610 yards, with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for a ratio of 1.45. This adds up to 200.1 yards per game and 8.8 yards per pass attempt.  

Against their three BCS opponents, though, they completed only 41 of 77 for 53.2 percent for 422 yards, with no touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a ratio of zero.  This works out 140.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per passing attempt, which is a lot less likely to lead to success.

They ran the ball 602 times for 2626 yards last year, which is an average of 4.4 yards per carry and 202 per game.  Against their three BCS opponents, though, they ran the ball 105 times for 471 yards for an average of 4.5 yards a carry and 157 per game.  Also, 51 of those rushes and 252 of those yards were against Kansas State, leaving 219 yards for the other two games.

So, basically, what you see on offense is a team that runs the ball three times as much as it passes, has almost perfectly balanced yardage, and averages 374 yards per game, but only 298 yards and 15 points per game against BCS opponents.  

They return dual threat QB Jeff Godfrey and TB Ronnie Weaver, who led the team in rushing with 890 yards and 11 TD’s.  They also return a TB who may be the best of them all if he fully recovers from injuries, Brynn Harvey, and FB Billy Giovanetti.  Also, though they return starting reciever AJ Guyton, they lost their three best from last season’s rotation.  On the line, they return TE Adam Nissley, C Jordan Rae, and Guards Theo Goins and Nick Peischel.

On defense, which has consistently been a point of pride for O’Leary over the years, the (formerly ‘Golden’) Knights return DT Victor Gray, MLB Josh Linum, CB Josh Robinson, and FS Kemal Ishmael.  That is not enough to stop the Cougars.

Expect the Cougars to win big.   

Know Your Opponent: Ole Miss

The University of Mississippi, or “Ole Miss,” is in Oxford, Mississippi, and plays at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, named after their most successful coach, John Vaught, and Judge William Hemingway.  The field is named “Hollingsworth Field” after long-time supporter (this probably means he contributed a lot of money) Dr Jerry Hollingsworth.  Their official capacity is 60,580 with a record crowd of 62,657.  

They were established in 1848, and became “Ole Miss” in 1897, when a student contest to name the yearbook came up with that name.  It stuck, and soon the University had a “permanent” nickname.  While it has received its share of rankings and rewards, their environment and lifestyle are as different from BYU as they could possibly be.  In 2010, the Princeton Review rated it as the fifth best “party university.”  

Football has been a mixed bag for Ole Miss.  They have won 6 SEC titles, but they were all between 1947 and 1963.  They also claim three “National Championships,” but they have never won it all in one of the accepted “major” polls.  

They have managed to win eight out of their last nine bowls, though, and have a bowl record of 21-12-0.  This is partly due to the fact that they used to be a very good team, and partly because the depth of the SEC in recent years has resulted in Ole Miss often going to lower-tier bowls against lower-tier competition.  

Head coach Houston Nutt took over in 2008, and went 9-4 with bowl victories his first two seasons.  Last year, though, with a new OC, the Rebels went 4-8.  Nutt is known for a “multiple” offense, though he prefers mostly pro set formations.  Despite the “multiple offense” label, though, he is one of those coaches who loves to run the ball, as evidenced by his use of Dexter McCluster in the Wildcat offense in 2008 and 2009.  He had Gus Malzahn as his OC at Arkansas in 2006, but Malzahn left because his spread offense and love of the pass didn’t agree with Nutt’s reliance on the run.  

Last year’s team was young, with three returning starters on offense and six on defense.  They started a total of eight seniors, one of whom was transfer quarterback Jeremiah Masoli.  The bad side of that for opponents is that a young team one year is a very experienced team the next year.  

This year, they are projected to have fifteen returning starters.  This works out to nine on offense, four on defense, and both kickers.  Out of these sixteen, seven are seniors.  One of the positions that doesn’t have a returning starter is quarterback.  Entering fall practice, returning dual-threat QB Randall McKay, WVU transfer Barry Brunetti, and Juco transfer and pro-style QB Zack Stout are all in the running, with Stout slightly behind right now.  

The RB job will be handled by senior Brandon Bolden, who rushed for 976 yards last year, and junior Jeff Scott, who gained 476.  This is OK, but what really makes them scary is that their entire interior offensive line returns this year, as does the tight end.  This works out to three seniors, two juniors, and one sophomore.  

The only offensive starters they lost were QB Jeremiah Masoli, who was mediocre, and WR Markeith Summers.  Everyone else is back.  When you add Houston Nutt’s love of and reliance on the run into the equation, it could add up to a lot of rushing yards in Oxford this year.  Most of all, though, if a team can run with impunity, the score can get out of hand rather quickly.  It will be the Cougars’ job to keep the Rebels from having their way up front.  

The best matchup for BYU will probably be the Cougar offense against the Rebel defense.  The Rebels return one lineman, one linebacker, a CB, and a safety.  Their best linebacker, DT Shackleford, tore an ACL.  He was expected to be the backbone of the defense in Oxford this year, and is a huge loss.  

Under new offensive coordinator Brandon Doman, the Cougars will have a  different look on offense this year.  Really, Doman can pretty much install anything he wants for this game and Houston Nutt will have no way of knowing what it will be.  We expect a return to the LaVell Edwards style West Coast Offense, with a few more spread formations thrown in, but it is going to be impossible to predict and very difficult for the Ole Miss staff to put together a  game plan for a defense with seven new starters.  

The key to this game is going to be whether the Cougars can keep from being overpowered by the Rebels’ very strong running attack.  If the Rebels are able to run the ball at will, they will be able to score often, keep their defense fresh, and leave less time on the clock for the Cougars to get their offense into gear.  

The good side to this, for BYU anyway, is that if the Rebels don’t overpower the Cougars, their inexperience at quarterback should make it tough for them to really do anything else when needed.  

A lot is being made of the Cougars’ move to independent status.  One of the main questions on everyone’s mind nationally is whether or not they have the personnel in the trenches to compete with the “big boys” on a weekly basis.  Before, opponents had the excuse of saying that BYU has an easy schedule and could save their energy and effort for big games.  

Now, the Cougars have a chance to prove them all wrong.  The Cougars have a chance to prove that the bigger teams and bigger programs don’t have the personnel to push them around.  The entire country could be watching this game.  Other than Notre Dame and USF, this might be game of the most national interest  in its time slot.  

We predict a high-scoring Cougars victory.

How Successful was Media Day?

The short answer is that it was a disappointment for anyone expecting any earth-shattering news, but a huge success on a national level.  The long answer requires an explanation and a bit of background.

Since sometime in the 1970′s, most major programs have had two promotional events called “Fan Day” and “Media Day.”  Fan Day is when the fans get to come out to the field, get autographs, and meet some of the players.  It is a great day for fans to be reminded that they are a big part of the program.  It is also a great day to sell season tickets and give away promotional items that help keep the program in the local consciousness.

Media Day, though, is a different animal.  Just like Fan Day, it is meant to spread good will for the program.  Unlike Fan Day, though, the recipient of the good will is the media.  The result of most programs’ media day is that the state and local papers have something to write about and the program gets publicity.  If a school is really lucky, the national media outlets will run a story.  

Yesterday, the fans didn’t get much.  From a fan standpoint, other than Bronco Mendenhall’s three-year extension, there was nothing new.  Anyone expecting big news was disappointed.  For a local fan, there really wasn’t anything there.  From a national standpoint, though, Media Day was a huge success.  

On the CBS Sports website, there are four stories on BYU right now.  Every single one of them is positive.  Titles are “Flying the Independent Flag,” “Honor First, Football Second at BYU,” “Mendenhall Gets Extension,” and “Cougars Deny Big East Overture.”  There are three stories at ESPN, and that doesn’t even include Trevor Matich because they don’t want the appearance of a conflict of interest.    

The bottom line is that you cannot buy that kind of publicity.  While yesterday’s news was mostly “yesterday’s news” for us, it educated the rest of the country about the Cougars.  This can only bode well.  The biggest problem about sports in Utah has always been the lack of national publicity and the resulting lack of esteem for instate programs.  

Whether it is John Stockton never fully getting the credit he deserved, or whether it’s BYU never having the opportunity to play in a BCS bowl, sports in Utah has always suffered from a lack of national publicity.  While other teams that play on TV all the time are known quantities, BYU and all Utah teams have always been  unknown quantities.  In sports, that almost always results in being underrated.  

We covered the move to independent status, and how it would enhance the Cougars’ chances to play in a BCS bowl and compete for another National Championship.  Yesterday, though, CBS Sports covered it.  ESPN covered it.  And now, BYU is showing up in National media in the same sentence as “Notre Dame” and “BCS Bowl.”  And people are being reminded that the Cougars did, indeed, win a National Championship in 1984.  

Think of what the stories have been lately in college football.  Ohio State, North Carolina, Auburn, Tennessee, and Oregon have all been fighting off various stages of NCAA investigations.  USC is still getting bad publicity from their probation.  Meanwhile, BYU is in the news about their independent status, their honor code, and giving their coach a three-year extension.  

When you think about it, yesterday’s stories about BYU are collectively the most positive national publicity any football program has gotten all summer.  The media decide who gets to play in the BCS bowls.  The computers help, but it is media people who really decide who plays where, because they control the rankings.  And yesterday served to put BYU’s name in the consciousness of those media people.  

When media people are more aware of BYU, they will get the coverage they deserve.  Between the national contract and yesterday’s Media Day, the Cougars now have a chance to be appropriately rewarded for what they do on the field.  This also has an effect on recruiting.  

The more positive national publicity BYU gets, the more access they will have to national recruits.  If they are on TV more, get more national coverage, and are ranked higher, they will become a destination for recruits whose parents want to see their kids truly taken care of and taught how to live right during their college careers.  This helps BYU and it is good for the LDS, too.  

The way this is most often described is “growing the brand.”  The move to independent status was the first step, but the national coverage of yesterday’s Media Day was a huge step in growing the BYU brand into a national brand that not only stands for honor and doing things right off the field, but for an elite product on the field as well.  

BYU now has momentum and an upward trend.  Their schedule has now been nationally acknowledged as “tough.”  This erases the main objection that most writers have had to ranking the Cougars where they deserve to be ranked.  Now that their schedule is seen as an elite schedule, they will no longer have to answer questions of whether or not they can compete with elite teams.  

To grossly oversimplify, BYU is now seen in the same light as Notre Dame.  If they win ten games with this schedule, they will get to a BCS bowl.  The only possible snag is whether or not they are seen as “traveling well” to bowls or not.  The enhanced publicity should keep the team in the consciousness of more national fans, and help sell tickets.  

So, even though it may have been a disappointment locally, yesterday’s Media Day was a huge success on a national level.  A lot of people know more about the Cougars today than they did yesterday.  And the Cougars just became impossible for BCS bowls to ignore anymore.

How Does the Move to the WCC Affect the Cougars’ Basketball Team?

For this year, expect a slight downward trend.  With the exception of maybe Duke, Kentucky, or a few other basketball factories, there isn’t a team in the country that could lose Jimmer Fredette and not feel it on the court the following year.  We will preview BYU in greater depth later, but for today, we would like to take a look at the WCC and see what the new competition looks like.  We will do so in order of their finish in the 2010-11 conference standings.

Saint Mary’s Gaels

St Mary’s may be the best team you never heard of.  Coach Randy Bennett is an “up and comer,” mentioned for both the Utah and Missouri jobs when they opened up this year.  He was selected as an assistant for the US 19-under team currently playing in the FIBA U19 World Championship in Latvia.

For 2011, they finished 25-9 overall and 11-3 in the WCC, with four players in double figures.  Their best player, sort of their “Jimmer lite,” was Mickey McConnell, and he led the team with  16.4 points and 6.1 assists per game.  McConnell graduated this year, and will be difficult to replace.  We project a split with this team.

Gonzaga Zags

Actually, they are the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but they are more commonly referred to as the Zags.  This is the team that most opponents “love to hate.”  There may be teams that have gotten more publicity for less performance, but we can’t really think of any right now.  When the Cougars play the Zags on ESPN, some of you may notice that the announcers think there is only one team on the floor.  A hint: it won’t be the Cougars.

As for their on-court performance, you may remember them as the team the Cougars beat 89-67 in the NCAA Tournament to end their season.

You may also remember that many picked Gonzaga to win this game by “neutralizing Jimmer Fredette.”  They finished 25-10 and 11-3, and are probably glad Jimmer is gone.

The biggest obstacle for BYU, though, is that Gonzaga lost only one player.  That player was Steven Gray, who averaged 14.8 points and 3.9 assists.  They return everyone else, including a couple of 7-footers in Robert Sacre, who was their bright spot in the loss to BYU, and Kelly Olnyk.

This is by far the scariest team in the conference this year, and Rivals has them ranked at 17 in their preseason projections.

Gonzaga is the only team in the conference with the potential to sweep the Cougars, and then pick up the rare trifecta in the conference tournament.  Also, they will have revenge on their minds for the tournament game.  Instant rivalry game, anyone?

University of San Francisco Dons

The Dons finished 19-15 and 10-4 last year.  The bad news for USF is that they graduated their biggest player, 6-10 center Moustapha Diarra, and have one 6-9 player on their roster as their tallest player.  The good news is that Diarra didn’t score in double figures, was a mediocre rebounder, and the only thing he led the team in was blocks with 0.9 per game.  This is a decent team, but not a great one.  This could be a split or the Cougars could sweep.

Santa Clara Broncos

The Broncos finished 24-14 and 8-6.  They graduate three seniors, but the largest contributor only averaged 5.5 points per game.  They return senior guard Kevin Foster, who averaged 20.2 points per game, and their next five top scorers.  This could be a very good team.  This could be a split or the Broncos could sweep.

Portland Pilots

The Pilots finished 20-12 and 7-7, but they are losing three starters and four players overall to graduation.  The top three graduating contributors are 6-10, 6-9, and 6-8.  This looks like a BYU sweep.

Pepperdine Waves

The Waves finished 12-21 and 5-9.  They lose two starters who combined for 20.2 points.  Another BYU sweep.

Loyola Marymount Lions

They finished 11-21 and 2-12.  It doesn’t matter who is coming back.  BYU sweep.

San Diego Toreros

They finished 6-24 and 2-12.  Not only will BYU sweep, but they will get to spend a nice, warm winter day in San Diego, too.

The New Kids on the Block

We are projecting an 11-5 record for the Cougars’ first season in the WCC.  Replacing Jimmer Fredette is going to be difficult.

Four star recruit Damarcus Harrison is a nice shooting guard, and at 6-4, should be able to get his shots off as a freshman.  But nobody can expect him to replace Jimmer, nor should they.  Jackson Emery is lost to graduation, too, and with him his 12.9 points.  That means the Cougars lost their two leading scorers for a total of 41.4 points a game.  Dave Rose is a very good coach, and the Cougars are a very mature team, but the Cougars have a very difficult job to do in the coming season.

The transfer of 6-7 Josh Sharp from Utah to BYU after a redshirt year and a two-year mission should help, and the Cougars are bringing back a lot of solid but not flashy players.  Hopefully, Brandon Davies takes care of business and gets back on the roster.  Noah Hartsock shows the ability to step up and pick up some of the scoring slack.  Charles Abouo hit a few nice shots in the tournament, and the Collingsworth brothers are good for some inside banging, no matter which one is on the floor.

It should be a fun year waiting to see who will emerge as the new person the team turns to in “crunch time.”  Our guess is that there won’t be a dominant player on the team this year, but that it will be one of “those” teams that is difficult to defend against because there are so many players on the floor who can put the ball in the net.